Posts Tagged ‘media’

EFP Brief No. 157: Roadmap Robotics for Healthcare

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

The main aim of this study was to provide key research policy recommendations for the application of robotics in healthcare in the research programmes of the EC. The study also aimed at raising awareness about important new developments in this field among a wider audience. To this extent, a roadmap of promising applications of robotics in healthcare and associated R&D was developed, taking into account the state of the art as well as short and long-term future possibilities with a time horizon ending in 2025.

EFMN Brief No. 157_Robotics for Healthcare

EFP Brief No. 154: Looking Forward in the ICT and Media Industry – Technological and Market Developments

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

The project was an activity within the framework contract between the European Parliament and ETAG, the European Technology Assessment Group, to carry out TA studies on behalf of the Parliament’s STOA Panel in view of the growing importance of a European science and technology policy. The purpose of this particular project was to identify current and expected technological and market developments in the field of ICT with an impact on the media industry and to indicate regulatory challenges and requirements stemming from the anticipated changes. The main target group are the Members of the European Parliament; the wider addressee is the interested public.

EFMN Brief No. 154_ICT and Media Industry

EFP Brief No. 147: ERoSC – The Socio-economic Impact of Emerging Social Computing Applications

Sunday, May 22nd, 2011

ERoSC is an exploratory research project that aims at studying the socio-economic impact of emerging social computing applications. The exploratory research scheme of the European Commission Joint Research Centre’s Institute for Prospective Studies (IPTS) is an internal instrument aimed at building up competence in strategically relevant scientific fields. The ERoSC project has been awarded as the IPTS 2007  Exploratory Research project. Its purpose is to identify and discuss current and future socio-economic implications of social computing and to identify policy options for Europe.

A Multi-faceted Approach to Socioeconomic Impacts of Social Computing in European Context

In less than five years, social computing (SC), that is, digital applications that enable interaction and collaboration, whereby users are participants (co-creators not end-users) and interconnected (the network as a collective resource), has shifted from a niche activity into a phenomenon engaging tens of millions of Internet users. Nevertheless, there is very little research and evidence on the socio-economic impact of SC in the European context.

Set in this context, the main objectives of ERoSC can be summarised as follows:

  • explore the socio-economic impact of social computing;
  • assess the sustainability of social computing applications (business models and viability);
  • assess the position of Europe in this field; and identify options for EU research and innovation policies.

Technological innovations have been scanned for available supply and demand data. Usage and the impact of SC in specific sectors have been explored using different analytical techniques, such as case studies, comparison of existing data and in-depth interviews. Finally, an expert workshop was conducted to validate the data. Peer reviewing by experts was used as an additional quality management tool.

Measuring and Analysing Social Computing

Social Computing is entering into a new stage of development. Blogging, photo- and video-sharing, social networking and social gaming have been adopted by some half of Internet users worldwide (around 25% in Europe), and high levels of growth in Europe have been reported in areas like blogging or online video. New social platforms are emerging that enable people to create more and richer content, which in turn generates network effects.

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Social computing activates new market segments, for instance women or ‘silver surfers’ (people aged 55 or older).

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People interplay with technology in many different ways. The majority of users tend to be ‘free riders’, that is, using SC content created by a ‘thin’ layer of core users (the ‘creators’). In Europe, roughly a third of Internet users also make use of SC contents, 10% provide feedback, 10% share contents, and only around 3% are those ‘creators’. Moreover, the intensity of use of SC applications is very diverse, for instance, people can be at the same time ‘creators’ and ‘free riders’.

Mobile – the ‘Next Frontier’?

A lot of innovation is taking place around mobile social computing. Mobile social computing, however, does not mirror the user participation of desktop-based social computing. Only a small user base has so far adopted mobile social computing, though there is evidence of growth. In the EU (selected countries), almost a third of mobile subscribers upload videos or photos on video/photo-sharing sites, with only 2.6 % accessing a social network via their mobile phones and 5.5 % watching video online. Teens are the most active users of mobile social computing.

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The ‘Tag Cloud’ of Social Impacts of Social Computing

Social computing allows for more room for personal and social creativity, and it is a new means to develop and construct personal identities. Moreover, identity is now transformed by technology.

The ‘always–on’ trend raises concerns about this new form of dependency, where people need to first communicate with others to feel their own feelings. The networks of virtual ‘friends’ becomes as significant as ‘real’ life ones, evolving into new forms of social capital that is, social computing will encourage social networks that are well connected (bonding social capital) rather than bridge between different networks (bridging social capital). The proximity of celebrity condition gets closer (‘my 15-minutes of fame’).

Social computing allows for enhanced social participation, for instance in politics, and better informed citizens for different roles in society, such as as a voter, learner, patient or consumer.

At the same time, the dynamics of privacy is changing.  Personal data recorded in databases are ‘perfectly transferable in space,[and] indefinitely preservable in time’ (Poster 1995). New social threats are emerging such as stalking and bullying or chains of suicides.

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Economic Impacts of Social Computing

Social computing provides sources of revenue both for users and platforms. More important, social computing is a driver for competitiveness. Impacts can be observed on industry itself, for example media or ICT industry, but also on other industries using SC. More targeted marketing and user research, both based on user profiles and content interests, are opening new channels to markets. New employment possibilities are emerging through social networks and new opportunities to utilize user innovations for product development or as an interface between companies and customers and for more efficient work processes.

In order to realize the potential positive impact, there is a need to meet a number of challenges of productivity, security and training.

Policy Options for Europe

In order to put forward informed policy implications, proper measurements are needed. There is a lack, however, of internationally comparable data on social computing from national statistical sources, while data is available coming mostly from non-official sources. This points to the need for better and systematic measurements and internationally comparable data. Improvement of official statistics (e.g. OECD, Eurostat) by adding categories of Internet use by activity questions to surveys could be one possible avenue for meeting this need.

The implications of social computing for policies for education, health, inclusion and for the policy making process itself should be considered. In addition, policies could be developed to provide the necessary framework conditions that would favour people and companies (in particular start-ups) staying in Europe, including promoting entrepreneurship and dealing with intellectual property rights (IPR) and copyright issues that might prevent the further development of SC.

There is also room for policy activities to address social cohesion and exclusion of groups of people such as elderly and migrants, to support democratisation and eParticipation processes.

Another European strength lies with mobile technologies and mobile connectivity, together with a marked lead in mobile devices, hence providing a possibility for Europe to further develop relevant services, applications and platforms for mobile 2.0.  An opportunity for Europe would also be to provide better access to public data, as such data are typically used in SC applications (e.g. mash-ups) to provide added value. Opening public data sets to allow citizens to create their own services could provide a boost to the use of SC, providing privacy and security concerns are adequately accommodated.

Authors: Corina Pascu                        corina.pascu@ec.europa.eu
Sponsors: European Commission,  The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies JRC-IPTS
Type: Exploratory research (internal research scheme)
Organizer: European Commission, The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies JRC-IPTS, IS Unit   Contact: Yves Punie            yves.punie@ec.europa.eu
Duration: 2007 – 2008
Budget: n.a.
Time Horizon: 2010
Date of Brief: June 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 147_ERoSC – Social Computing

Sources and References

http://is.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ is the main website where all reports and other information will be made available.

Pascu, C. (2008), ‘An Empirical Analysis of the Creation, Use and Adoption of Social Computing Applications’, EUR 23415, IPTS Report, European Commission,at http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC46431.pdf

Ala-Mutka, K. (2008), “Social Computing: the case of collaborative content”, IPTS Report, European Commission, forthcoming.

Cachia, R. (2008), “Social Computing: the case Social networking”, IPTS Report, European Commission, forthcoming.

Punie, Y., (Ed.) (2008) “The Socio-Economic Impact of Social Computing: Proceedings of a validation and policy options

EFP Brief No. 145: Constructing Dark Scenarios for Privacy Policy Formulation

Sunday, May 22nd, 2011

In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather “sunny”, showing how new technologies promise to make our lives more productive and enriching. A European project called SWAMI (Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence) deliberately developed “dark scenarios” to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust and security and inclusiveness posed by new technologies. This brief describes the SWAMI scenarios and the methodology used to construct and analyse them.

SWAMI Dark Scenarios

While most AmI scenarios paint the promise of the new tech-nologies in sunny colours, there is a dark side to AmI as well. In a way, this dark side is inherent in the very nature of AmI, for instance, the fact that AmI technologies will deliver per-sonalised services to users means that somewhere a lot of per-sonal information needs to be stored about the user. That being the case, there are risks that the user’s personal information can be abused, either accidentally or intentionally. These risks have been recognised by policy-makers and researchers, and were at the heart of the SWAMI project, funded by the Euro-pean Commission under its Sixth Framework Programme.
The project began in February 2005 and finished 18 months later. The SWAMI consortium had five partners: the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Germany), the Technical Research Center of Finland (VTT Electronics), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Belgium), the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS, Spain) of the EC’s Joint Research Centre, and Trilateral Research & Consulting (UK).
One of the tasks of the project was to create and analyse four dark scenarios that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust and security posed by new AmI technologies. They were called “dark scenarios”, a term coined to signify things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The objective of the scenarios was to expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners.
The process in constructing the scenarios began with an exten-sive review of existing AmI-related projects and studies. Fol-lowing a workshop with other AmI experts to discuss the most important threats and vulnerabilities posed by AmI, the SWAMI partners had a brainstorming session until we agreed on the rough outlines of four contrasting scenarios. We then developed these outlines into scenario stories or scripts. To ground the scenarios in reality – to ensure that they were not too far-fetched – we did a “technology check” (are the technologies referenced in the scenarios probable?) and a “reality check” (are there press reports of events similar to those mentioned in the scenarios?). Then each partner reviewed all of the scenar-ios in order to eliminate doubtful points, unnecessary wordage,irrelevancies, etc., and to sharpen them to illustrate the points to be emphasised. Once the scenarios were “stable”, we per-formed an analysis of them, including a legal analysis. The scenarios and associated analyses were presented at a second SWAMI workshop in order to benefit from the comments of other experts. This scenario-construction process can be de-picted as follows:

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The resulting four scenarios, elaborated in our book, Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (see the references below), are the following:

Dark scenario 1: A typical family in different environments – presents AmI vulnerabilities in the life of a typical family moving through different environments. It introduces dark situations in the smart home, at work and while taking a lunch break in a park.

Dark scenario 2: Seniors on a journey – also references a family but focuses more specifically on senior citizens on a bus tour. An exploited vulnerability in the traffic system causes an accident, raising many different problems related to both travel and health AmI systems.

Dark scenario 3: Corporate boardroom & court case – involves a data-aggregating company that becomes the victim of a theft of personal AmI-generated data that fuel its core business. Given its dominant position in the market, the company wants to cover this up but ends up in court two years later. The scenario also highlights the disparities between countries with AmI networks and those without.

Dark scenario 4: Risk society – from the studios of a morning news programme, this scenario portrays the AmI world as a risk society. It presents an action group against personalised profiling; the digital divide at a global scale and, related to environmental concerns, the possible vulnerabilities of AmI traffic systems and crowd management.

 Elements in the SWAMI  Scenario Methodology

The SWAMI consortium devised a methodology, an analytical structure for both constructing and deconstructing scenarios, not only the SWAMI scenarios, but many other technologyoriented scenarios. The analytical structure comprises the following elements or activities:

Framing the scenario

This first step summarises the scenario in question and explains its context – who are the main actors in the scenario, what happens to them, what they do, how far into the future is the scenario, where does it take place and in what domain (home, office, on the move, shopping, etc). It identifies the type of scenario (trend, normative, explorative) and key assumptions (e.g., intelligent technologies will be embedded everywhere in rich countries, but not in poor countries).

Identifying the technologies and/or devices

Next, the most important AmI technologies and/or devices used and/or implied in the scenarios are identified.

Identifying the applications

The analysis then considers the applications that emerge in each scenario and that are supported by the technologies mentioned in the previous step.

The drivers

The analysis identifies the key drivers that impel the scenario or, more particularly, the development and use of the applications. Drivers are typically socio-economic, political or environmental forces, corporate ambitions or personal motivations (e.g., greed).

Issues

Next, the major issues raised by the scenarios are identified and explicated. A discussion of the issues considered the threats and vulnerabilities exposed by the scenario, their impacts and legal implications.

Conclusions

The final step is a reality check of the scenario itself (how likely is it?) and a consideration of what should be done to address the issues it raises.

Large-scale Data Availability Multiplies Threats and Vulnerabilities

The SWAMI scenarios highlighted many of the threats and vulnerabilities that we foresee afflicting the AmI world. The principal difference (in our view) between an AmI world and that which we know today is the scale of the data available. When everything is embedded with intelligence, when AmI is pervasive and invisible, when everything is connected and linked, the threats and vulnerabilities that we know today will multiply. In an AmI world, we can expect to be under surveillance (“transparent”) wherever we go because the permanent and real-time registration and processing of our presence and behaviour is the precondition – the “code” – of ambient intelligence.

The threats to our privacy, however we define it, can come from many different sources. Here are some of the principal ones that affect us today and we can assume will still be threats in an AmI world:

  • hackers and attackers,
  • function creep,
  • surveillance,
  • profiling,
  • lack of public awareness or concern about privacy rights,
  • lack of enforcement and oversight of privacy rights,
  • erosion of rights and values,
  • uncertainties about what to protect and about the costs of protection and privacy erosion,
  • government and industry are less than forthright about the personal data they collect and/or how they use that data

Is Protection Feasible? – Safeguards

The multiplicity of threats and vulnerabilities associated with AmI will require a multiplicity of safeguards. We grouped safeguards into three main approaches:

  • technological,
  • socio-economic,
  • legal and regulatory.

Technological Safeguards – Need for Sophisticated Methods for Controlling Data Collection and Use

The main privacy-protecting principles in network applications are anonymity, pseudonymity, unlinkability and unobservability. The main difference between existing network applications and emerging AmI applications is two-fold: first, in the former case, the user has some understanding of which data about him or her are collected, and has some means to restrict data collection: e.g., to use a public computer anonymously to access certain web pages; to switch off his or her mobile phone, to pay cash instead of using a web service, etc. In the latter case, with the environment full of numerous invisible sensors (and video cameras), it is difficult, if not impossible, for users to understand and to control data collection and to achieve unobservability, anonymity and pseudonymity. Intelligent data processing, limiting linkability and implementing strong access control to collected data seem to be the main ways of protecting privacy in such applications. However, such applications present potential privacy threats anyway if the police, intelligence agencies, family members or criminals can search through devices that store personal data.

A second important difference between existing network applications and emerging AmI applications is that neither mobile devices nor web usage penetrates through such strong privacy-protecting borders as walls and the human body, but physiological, video and audio sensors, proposed for AmI applications, will have much stronger capabilities to identify a person and to reveal personal activities and feelings.

Consequently, future AmI applications will require stronger safeguards, many of which are not yet fully developed. Hence,

we proposed research on developing privacy-protecting safeguards such as:

  • communication protocols which either do not require a unique device identifier at all or which require authorisation for accessing the device identifier;
  • network configurations that can hide the links between senders and receivers of data;
  • improving access control methods by multimodal fusion, context-aware authentication and unobtrusive biometric modalities (especially behavioural biometrics, because they pose a smaller risk of identity theft) and by liveness detection in biometric sensors;
  • enforcing legal requirements and personal privacy policies by representing them in machine-readable form and attaching these special expressions to personal data, so that they specify how data processing should be performed, allow a privacy audit and prevent any other way of processing;
  • developing fast and intuitive means of detecting privacy threats, informing the user and configuring privacy policies;
  • increasing hardware and software capabilities for realtime data processing in order to minimise the lifetime and amount of raw data in a system;
  • increasing software intelligence by developing methods to detect and to hide sensitive data;
  • developing user-friendly means for recovery when security or privacy has been compromised.

Socio-economic Safeguards Require Cooperation

Co-operation between producers and users of AmI technology in all phases from R&D to deployment is essential to address some of the threats and vulnerabilities posed by AmI. Among the socio-economic safeguards we proposed were these:

  • standards,
  • privacy audits,
  • codes of practice,
  • trust marks and trust seals,
  • reputation systems and trust-enhancing mechanisms,
  • service contracts with strong privacy protections,
  • guidelines for ICT research,
  • raising public awareness,
  • including privacy, identity and security issues in the professional education curricula of computer scientists,
  • media attention, bad publicity and public opinion.

Legal and Regulatory Safeguards  – Transparency Is Key

SWAMI identified some serious legal problems when applying the existing legal framework to address the intricacies of an AmI environment. We found that most of the challenges arising in the

new AmI environment should be addressed by transparency tools (such as data protection and security measures). Transparency should be the default, although some prohibitions referring to political balances, ethics and core legal concepts should be considered too.

A set of rules needs to be envisaged to guarantee procedural safeguards similar to those currently applicable to the protection of our homes against state intervention (e.g., requiring a search warrant). Technical solutions aimed at defending private digital territories (the private sphere of the individual no matter where he is) against intrusion should be encouraged and, if possible, legally enforced.  The individual should be empowered with the means to freely decide what kind of information he or she is willing to disclose. Such protection could be extended to the digital movement of the person, that is, just as the privacy protection afforded the home has been or can be extended to the individual’s car, so the protection could be extended to home networks, which might contact external networks.

All employees should always be clearly and a priori informed about the employee surveillance policy of the employer (when and where surveillance is taking place, what is the finality, what information is collected, how long it will be stored, what are the (procedural) rights of the employees when personal data are to be used as evidence, etc.).

The status of pseudonymity under the law needs further clarification, whether pseudonyms should be regarded as anonymous data or as personal data falling under the data protection regime.

The obligation of data protection law to inform the data subject about when and which data are collected, by whom and for what purpose gives the data subject the possibility to react to mistakes or abuses, and enables him to enforce his right in case of damage. It would be desirable to provide the individual not only with information about what data are processed, but also what knowledge has been derived from the data. This might imply a rethinking of data protection law.

A means to prevent data laundering could be envisaged which would create an obligation for those who buy or otherwise acquire databases, profiles and vast amounts of personal data, to check diligently the legal origin of the data. An obligation could be created to notify the national data protection authorities when personal data(bases) are acquired. Those involved or assisting in data laundering could be subject to criminal sanctions.

Profiling practices and the consequent personalisation of the ambient intelligence environment lead to an accumulation of power in the hands of those who control the profiles and should therefore be made transparent.

Simply identifying safeguards is not sufficient, of course, so the SWAMI consortium went further and specifically addressed recommendations to the European Commission, member states, industry, academia, civil society organisations and individuals.  The reader interested in more details should consult the references below.

 

Authors: David Wright                                       david.wright@trilateralresearch.com
Sponsors: European Commission / DG Information Society and Media
Type: Field/sector specific
Organizer: B-1049 Brussels, Belgium
Duration: 2005 – 2006
Budget: € 399,797
Time Horizon: 2017
Date of Brief: July 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 145_Dark Scenarios

References

Wright, David, Serge Gutwirth, Michael Friedewald et al., “Privacy, trust and policy-making: challenges and responses”, Computer Law and Security Review, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2009 [forthcoming].

Wright, David, Serge Gutwirth, Michael Friedewald et al., Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence, Springer, Dordrecht, 2008.

Wright, David, “Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Mi-nority Report”, Futures, Vol. 40, No. 1, June 2008, pp. 473-488.

Wright, David, Michael Friedewald et al., “The illusion of security”, Communications of the ACM, Vol. 51, Issue 3, March 2008, pp. 56-63.

Wright, David, Serge Gutwirth and Michael Friedewald, “Shining light on the dark side of ambient intelligence”, Fore-sight, April 2007, pp. 46-59.

EFP Brief No. 135: Globalisation in the 21st Century: Where Optimism and Fear Collide

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

Globalisation has become a keyword of the 21st century. Who are the winners and who are the losers in a globalised world? The term globalisation triggers extremely contradictory emotions among the people of Europe. One third of Europeans (33%) regard themselves as winners of this development and see globalisation as a kind of liberation from overly constrictive and outdated boundaries. In contrast, one in five citizens feels to have lost out in this process (21%). Europeans only agree on one issue: the process of globalisation can neither be halted nor reversed. These are the results of the first European representative study that asked 11,000 citizens aged 14 and above in Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Russia and Switzerland about their hopes and fears for the future. The study was part of a research project by the Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen (Foundation for Research on the Future) of British American Tobacco.

Germans and Hungarians Regard Themselves as the Losers of Globalisation– Finns as the Winners

The effects of globalisation were subject to extremely different interpretations in the individual European countries: over half of the Finns questioned (51%) see themselves as winners. The Belgians (43%), Swiss (43%) and British (39%) take a similarly positive view of the future. Equally for the French (37%), Italians (25%) and Russians (24%), the hope of being able to profit from globalisation is greater than any fears they have. The Hungarians and Germans, however, are of a less positive mindset. In both countries, less than one in five (19%) believes that globalisation would have positive effects on their future. In these two countries, globalisation is evidently not the problem, but rather the degree of inequality and the subjectively perceived unjust distribution of the benefits of globalisation
between the winners and losers. Citizens doubt whether this distribution is socially just and fair.

Survey of Nine Countries

A representative face-to-face approach was used for this study. The interviewees were given a list of possible answers, which were presented in a random order. A total of 11,000 people aged 14 and above were questioned in nine countries. A sample of either 1,000 or 2,000 people was surveyed in each country. The study was conducted in Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Russia and Switzerland between 14 September and 26 October 2007. The underlying definition of Europe was not based on membership in the European Community but on geographical criteria. The countries were selected to ensure that nations from all European
regions were included in the sample. The European study was a research project of the German BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen. An external market research institute GfK (Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung) and its partners in the various countries conducted the study.

What is the Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen?

The BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen, a German foundation for examining societal expectations, promoting the scientific debate on issues determining our future and furthering approaches to a sustainable resolution of social issues of the future. Futurologists at this foundation have been examining societal expectations since 1979. The foundation acts as an independent interface between science, economics, media and politics. For many important opinion leaders, the foundation’s future research has provided support for political and social decision-making processes for decades.

Health, Family, Friendship – Quality of Life in Europe

According to the study, the most enduring and sustainable future safeguard for all Europeans is, without a doubt, quality of life. First and foremost, quality of life means one’s health (95%), family (90%) and friends (88%) – partnership (78%), nature, education and work (76% each) are rated slightly lower. Spending money and having leisure time (65% each) are regarded as important by two thirds of those questioned. Religion is mentioned by only one third of the people asked (30%) as a factor significant to personal well-being with even sports ranking higher (39%).

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In this new Europe-wide study, major differences within the countries surveyed can be identified:

  • Italians love culture and are proud of their faith. In Italy, culture (76%) and religion (48%) are of above-average importance compared to the other countries; in contrast leisure time (51%) and spending money (53%) play a subordinate role.
  • For Russians, the family, consumption and money are particularly important. Russia is the only country where the family (90%) ranks first; the importance of spending money (74%) is also significantly above the average value. On the other hand, friendships (68%), education (62%) and nature (48%) are rated as least relevant compared to other countries.
  • The British attach importance to lifelong learning. Amongst all of those questioned, the citizens of the United Kingdom state education most frequently (86%) as a guarantee for the future.The Finns are nature lovers. In addition to nature (91%), leisure time (85%) and sports (71%), friendships (94%) and partnerships (84%) are mentioned as important for quality of life.
  • For the Germans, health (98%) is integral to quality of life. This nation, however, attaches the least importance to family, culture and religion of all the countries surveyed.
  • The Hungarians are seeking for consumption. In Hungary, spending money (84%) plays the biggest role compared to the other countries.
  • The Swiss count on partnerships. On average, the Swiss mentioned the lowest number of factors as important for future quality of life – this may be because many of the conditions are already in place today. The significance of partnerships is above average (83%), whilst the relevance of spending money was the lowest of all the countries.
  • The French want a bit of everything. The French mention the greatest number of factors of all those questioned. Family (95%) and culture (75%) in particular are important for quality of life.
  • Belgians set particular store by spending money (76%). Furthermore, in no other country do more respondents mention the family as significant (95%).

Europeans do not necessarily wish to improve their standard of living but rather their quality of life. Answers to the question “What are we living for?” are called for. There was agreement amongst those questioned that one’s own health is “the” prerequisite for quality of life. This is followed by family and friends in almost all countries. Alongside health, social areas are coming to the fore. On the other hand, the importance of aspects which were formerly central to quality of life, such as work, consumption and leisure time, is declining.

Crime, Aggressiveness, Lack of Honesty: Europeans’ Fears for the Future

Crime is Europe’s unsolved problem. Two thirds (66%) of those questioned from Helsinki to Rome, Moscow to Zurich and Berlin to London state that fear for their own safety was – by far – their greatest worry for the future. The majority of concerns are focused on interpersonal dealings associated with a feared loss of prosperity. Aside from fear of crime, increasing levels of aggressiveness (51%), decreasing honesty (41%), selfishness (38%) and intolerance (37%) are all causes for concern. The consequences could be loneliness (29%) or social exclusion (27%), which almost inevitably result in social conflict. The entire network that unites, keeps together and protects society is in question.

The citizens of the various countries express different fears:

  • Crime is mentioned most frequently in Switzerland (80%) and least frequently in France (49%).
  • Intolerance, on the other hand, is rated highest in France (58%) and lowest in Russia (15%).
  • Xenophobia is also not a major issue in Russia (8%), whilst for the Swiss this is particularly relevant (44%).
  • Social conflict is mentioned in Germany (42%) twice as often as in Italy (21%).
  • Envy is a far more significant issue in Belgium (39%) than in the United Kingdom (15%).
  • Lack of respect for children is hardly of relevance in Hungary (15%), whilst in Germany this is a major issue (40%).
  • Indifference as a concern for the future is mentioned by a majority of Finns (53%) compared to only a minority of the British (18%).

Social cohesion as a society’s central resource is threatened. It is being replaced by an aggregation of individuals whose behaviour is determined by short-term cost-benefit calculations and guided by the question: “How can I benefit?” Every single society requires a minimum of solidarity and feeling of community. This, however, requires that people are united and feel responsible for one another. Just as the desire for a sense of community, solidarity and security grows, it becomes increasingly difficult to satisfy these wishes. This presents a challenge to every single one of us. Politics is only in a position to provide the framework, whereas people are responsible for implementation.

Friendship, Social Justice,  Reliability: Europe’s Future Values

Europeans are just as aware of their fears as they are of potential solutions. There are signs of a positive change in values: the focus is shifting towards pro-society values, aimed at ensuring harmonious cohabitation. These values include friendship (65%), social justice (60%) and reliability (59%). There is also agreement amongst the majority of people asked about the following values: love (58%), helpfulness (55%), freedom (53%) and friendliness (50%). In response to the question which values are particularly important to the person questioned, the following rate slightly lower: loyalty (48%), conscientiousness and social responsibility (46% each).

Comparing the answers given in the various countries, it becomes clear that there are different needs and requirements. For example, helpfulness, conscientiousness and reliability are at their loudest in Germany. In comparison, in Great Britain friendliness, loyalty and social responsibility are demanded first and foremost. The Swiss wish for love and responsibility, whilst the Finns demand freedom and social justice. Europeans want to see a quick end to looming social erosion. They are willing to undergo moral renewal. Research in the nine
European countries has shown that there are signs of a renaissance of faith in the future. The citizens of Europe are becoming increasingly confident. The age of egoism is slowly coming to an end. And reliability can once again begin to take hold where arbitrariness once flourished.

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First Approach for the

Future of Europe

The results of the study will be interpreted in detail and published in March as a hardcopy (about 80 pages, German and English). This publication will be sent to members of the German and the European parliament who deal with issues affecting the future of Europe. Press releases will be sent out in all nine participating countries. The study is a first approach at addressing one of the main projects of the foundation in 2008 called The Future of Europe. Members of the EFMN Network who are interested in the publication can contact the foundation by email and we will send a copy of the study (a PDF file) in the 2nd half of March 2008.

Authors: Ulrich Reinhardt Ulrich_Reinhardt@bat.com
Sponsors: BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen (British American Tobacco Foundation for Future Research)
Type: National foresight exercise, single issue
Organizer: BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen, Alsterufer 4, 20354 Hamburg, Germany
Duration: 2007-2008
Budget: 100,000€
Time Horizon: 2007
Date of Brief: January 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 135_ BAT 21st century globalisation

Sources and References

www.batstiftung.com

EFP Brief No. 131: Banks & Future Preparing for the Scenario 2015

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

In the Innovation Forum “Banks & Future” (Innovationsforum “Bank & Zukunft”) under the academic direction of Fraunhofer IAO (Germany), numerous banks and IT service companies have pooled their competences with regard to future trends in the banking sector. Their aim is to identify market-oriented opportunities for development and structural and technical optimisation potential, to bring together users and producers of technologies in the banking sector, and to initiate the necessary innovation processes. Ever since this research initiative was started in July 2004, a yearly trend survey has been part of the research work.

Innovation in Sales and Industrialised Processes

In the Innovation Forum “Banks & Future” numerous banks and IT service companies have pooled their competences under the academic direction of Fraunhofer IAO with regard to future trends in the banking sector in Germany and in Europe. Their aim is to identify market-oriented opportunities for development and structural and technical optimisation potential, to bring together users and producers of technologies in the banking sector, and to initiate the necessary innovation processes. The main aspect is to enforce competitiveness through innovation in sales and industri-alised processes by adopting an integrated view. Use of modern information technology is seen as an enabler of future business models. In the meantime, the Innovation Forum “Banks & Fu-ture” has become an internationally accepted trademark for re-search and development in the financial services sector. It addresses innovative companies having a vital interest in advancing existing business processes as well as utilising the potential of innovative technologies.

Coping with Change in the Banking Industry

The main challenges which banks have to face in defining future business strategies include the following aspects:

  • conceiving scenarios for future banking to cope with changing markets in the financial services sector,
  • innovation in sales (new sales models, reorganisation of sales structures and processes),
  • identifying success factors for the optimisation of proc-esses within extended value chains in the context of the industrialisation of the financial services sector,
  • designing innovation processes for enhancing institutional abilities to react to changes in an innovative way,
  • developing personnel, organisational and technical infra-structures for the implementation of future business mod-els in banking.

Research Approach

The following figure shows the project’s main areas of research.

The Innovation Forum’s research approach seeks to develop practical solutions and applications by

  • trend analysis of the German and the European retail banking market,
  • surveys in the industrial and technological sector and, on this basis, drawing inferences for the banking industry,
  • test and demonstration of innovative IT solutions at the show case “Banks & Future” at Fraunhofer IAO in Stuttgart.

Partners

The Innovation Forum “Banks & Future” was initiated in 2004 by Fraunhofer IAO and IBM Deutschland GmbH. Since the beginning of this joint research project, the following partners were involved in the research process: 3X-Banktechnik, Akademie Deutscher Genossenschaften ADG, Allen International Ltd., arvato logistics services – arvato distribution GmbH, Berliner Volksbank eG, Bosch Sicherheitssysteme GmbH, Cisco Systems GmbH, Citibank Privatkunden AG & Co. KGaA, Commerzbank AG, DaimlerChrysler Bank AG, Deutsche Apotheker- und Ärztebank, DWP-Bank, Elaxy GmbH, Equens AG, Fiducia IT AG, GAD eG, inasys Gesellschaft für Informations- und Analyse-Systeme GmbH, Nord/LB Informationstechnologie GmbH, MVR Marketinggemeinschaft der Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken e.V., S&N AG, Siemens AG, Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw, Sparkasse Pfullendorf-Meßkirch, Strähle Raum-Systeme GmbH, Tineon AG, Vitra GmbH, Volkswagen Bank GmbH, Vereinigte Volksbank AG Böblingen/ Sindelfingen – Schönbuch – Calw/Weil der Stadt, VR-Bank Rhön-Grabfeld, VR Bauregie GmbH, and Wincor Nixdorf International GmbH.

Trend Survey “Banks & Future”

Since 2004, Fraunhofer IAO has established a yearly trend survey of the German banking market called “Banks & Future”. The survey addresses bank managers of different banking sectors and of different bank sizes. Since 2007, the trend survey has been extended to the European level and will be continued in 2008. In 2007, about 460 bank managers in Germany and about 80 bank managers from other European countries participated in this survey. Survey design is based on research results of the Innovation Forum “Banks & Future”. In turn, the empirical results provide the basis for further research by the Forum. Figure 2 gives an overview on the main aspects.

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Major Challenges in the Banking Markets

In the financial service sector, and especially in the area of retail banks, there is an intense competition between banks and a high pressure to improve customer orientation (see Figure 3). This pertains to increasing price competition in the field of standardised products as well as increasing demands from “better” informed customers for high quality consultancy. Even the German banking market is affected by a heightened price competition (90 per cent in Germany, 71 per cent in other European countries). Banks also have to cope with more European regulations to prepare for harmonised European financial markets.

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Strategic Projects

Looking at actual strategic projects, the intensification of sales activities has highest priority for increasing cross- and up-selling rates (see Figure 4). Another point is to improve organ-isational effectiveness and efficiency by establishing end-to-end IT support of business processes. Finally, bank managers have ranked the modernisation of sales channels among the top three strategic projects for innovation.

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In summary, the bank managers plan to renew the business models by innovation in sales and by optimising value chain processes.

Innovation in Sales –  Branches & More

Innovation in sales involves a new design for the interaction of bank and customers. Despite the trend toward face-to-face contact, the virtual branch has also gained relevance for customer interaction; while it has further development potential also a variety of requirements need to be met for tapping its full potential.

Innovation in sales demands a well-integrated comprehensive approach, which considers all sales channels and their interrelations. At the Innovation Forum “Banks & Future”, four scenarios for future banking were developed, which characterize future-oriented concepts of interaction and focus on the communication between customer and consultant.

1.         “Life-assistance-banking”

In this scenario, customer interaction is based on individual con-sulting. At the show case, a biometric and a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) based customer recognition supports the new role of a “navigator”, who addresses incoming customers based on Customer Relationship Management (CRM) informa-tion. The branch design and integrated technologies encourage a consultancy approach that reflects a long-term customer relation-ship providing support over a lifetime, even beyond banking.

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2.         “Community-banking”

The branch is a communication and experience space that provides customers with additional occasions for interaction  (e.g. “after-work-banking” at a bank café and supplementary services by partners). Self-service areas are connected to the workplace of a “service assistant”. Areas of “communication” and areas of “privacy” are combined in an open space concept. Customers and non-customers are invited to visit the branch.

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3.          “Convenience-banking”

The idea of “financial shopping” requires easy access to standardized financial services. The informed customer can do business at self-service terminals or by approaching a “service assistant”.

4.          “High-tech-banking”

The branch is part of a multimedia-based communication and interaction concept. New media and enhanced information services support personal communication in and outside the branch.

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The scenarios “Life-assistance-banking” and “Communitybanking” have been presented at a show case at Fraunhofer IAO since May 2007 to demonstrate innovative sales processes supported by innovative IT solutions.

Scenario Future Sales

Additional scenarios reflecting new opportunities of direct sales channels by using new technologies like Web 2.0 or virtual sales rooms are part of the ongoing and future research work.

Industrialisation – the Process View

The term “bank industrialisation” describes the transfer of technological concepts and management processes from the industrial to the financial service sector. Industrialisation focuses on the capability of a bank to optimise the complete value chain by managing the vertical and horizontal integration of business partners as well as implementing a mature business process management within the organisation.

Status of “Bank Industrialisation”

In the trend survey “European Retail Banking Survey 2007” by Fraunhofer IAO, about 46 per cent of the banks achieved significant success as a result of implementing industrial methods, 49 percent achieved minor success and only 5 per cent of the participants stated that they had no success with industrialisation. With regard to the expected industrialisation potential, 13 per cent of the participants estimated a very high potential and 57 per cent estimated a high industrialisation potential in their banks. To achieve the potential of industrialisation, the implementation of a professional business process management is a key success factor.

Quick-check Tools for “Bank Industrialisation”

At the Innovation Forum “Banks & Future” an industrialisation assessment tool was developed, which enables bank managers to analyse the actual situation of banks with respect to industrialisation. The tool integrates the structured analysis of the bank’s strategies, its process alignment and its process management maturity (see Figure 8).

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The industrialisation assessment tool provides information at the strategy and operational level of bank management. The industrialisation assessment must be extended to other organisational issues. In a next step, a structural model of an industrialised bank will be developed that reflects increasing requirements in flexibility and agility. On this basis, the tool set will be expanded to include additional aspects of industrialisation.

Outlook to 2015

The trend survey “Banks & Future” provides an outlook on the future banking markets as perceived by the bank managers:

1. Changing Banking Markets

Establishment of a European financial market, growth of niche players and cooperation across borders (agile and flexible).

2. Competition by Service Quality and Speed

Besides price competition, other critical success factors such as service quality, added value and speed will gain increasing significance.

3. Industrialised Processes and Structures

Redefinition of value chains in extended models of co-operation, assessment of structural changes in banks including new roles.

4.New Services within Industrialised Value Chains

An industrialised value chain enables agile and flexible service composition to address changing and new markets.

5. Customer Management 2.0

Banks invest in customer contact and emotional selling, without losing the benefits of bank automation and of new communication technologies like Web 2.0 and virtual sales.

6. Security and Service Quality

Biometric solutions are a standard part of security concepts and are used to support customer convenience.

7. Management Skills and Personnel Development

New bank profiles require different management skills. Better informed customers ask for well educated banking people.

Authors: Martin Engstler   martin.engstler@iao.fraunhofer.de Rainer Welsch   rainer.welsch@de.ibm.com
                Sponsors: IBM Deutschland GmbH and more than 25 other partners, including banks, technology suppliers and service providers from the financial services sector
Type: National (Germany) and European foresight exercise for the banking markets
Organizer: Martin Engstler, Fraunhofer IAO, martin.engstler@iao.fraunhofer.de
Duration: 2004-2008
Budget: n.a.
Time Horizon: 2015
Date of Brief: Februray 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 131_Bank_Future

Sources and References

  • Spath, D. (Ed..); Engstler, M.; Praeg, C.-P.; Vocke, C.: Trendstudie »Bank & Zukunft 2007«, Stuttgart: Fraunhofer IRB, 2007
  • Spath, D. (Ed..); Engstler, M.; Praeg, C.-P.; Vocke, C., Welsch, R.: European Retail Banking Survey 2007, Frankfurt am Main und Stuttgart, 2007, http://www.bankundzukunft.de, http://www.iao.fraunhofer.de

EFP Brief No. 130: Migration: One of the Most Important Challenges for Europe

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

This brief presents major social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends and rationales for migration, followed by a number of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of migratory processes. In the last section, the brief concludes with a set of general policy options and some final remarks about the sources and data analysed.

EFMN Brief No. 130_Migration

EFP Brief No. 123: Scenarios 2026 for the South West of England

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

This study (which took place in 2004) presents four ‘socio-economic-political scenarios’ designed to stimulate, guide and inform strategic thinking about the future of one of nine English regions, namely the South West. The scenarios portray distinct pictures of the social, political and economic background against which the strategies for the South West can be reviewed and developed. They provide a consistent approach and serve as practical thinking tools. The scenarios are also intended to help organisations in the South West to assess their vulnerability to forces of change and to plan appropriate adaptation strategies.

EFMN Brief No. 123_South_West_England

EFP Brief No. 121: National Foresight Programme “Poland 2020”

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

The National Foresight Programme “Poland 2020” is the first national foresight exercise being carried out in Poland. It is being con-ducted in three research areas: sustainable development of Poland, information and telecommunication technologies, and security. Its main aim is to set up paths of scientific research and development capable of accelerating long-term social and economic growth. An-other equally important goal is to trigger public debate on visions of Poland’s future. The realization of the programme has been pre-ceded by a pilot foresight project in the area of “Health and Life” research.

EFMN Brief No. 121_Poland 2020_SocioTrans

EFP Brief No. 118: Austria’s Futures: Past Perspectives and Present Expectations

Friday, May 20th, 2011

The Brief covers a foresight exercise that is unique in so far as it revisits the projections and scenarios of a historical foresight undertaken in Austria in 1983 for the challenges and changes that Austria would have to meet up to the year 2005. Not only are these sce-narios revisited but also compared to the reality of 2005. In a further step, a second foresight activity of this kind was started to build scenarios for Austria’s future in 2025. The experts of 1983 saw the microelectronic revolution as the technological pacemaker of the future and 20 years later tried to assess the actual impact of this technological progress on various parts of Austrian life.

EFMN Brief No. 118 – Austria’s Future