Posts Tagged ‘housing’

EFP Brief No. 152: Combining ICT and Cognitive Science: Opportunities and Risks

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

Many experts think that the technological convergence of previously separated sciences like nanotechnology, biotechnology, information and communication technologies and cognitive sciences will have a deep, long-term impact on society and economy. Key actors in society need to become aware of the challenges linked to converging applications (CA) and take decisions in support of developing them. By analysing CA-related opportunities and risks at a very early stage, we hope to contribute to reducing possible adverse effects in the future.

EFMN Brief No. 152_ICT and Cognitive Science

EFP Brief No. 151: Furniture Foresight Centre – CEFFOR®

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

CEFFOR was created to promote the sustainable development (in terms of all three pillars: economic, social and environmental) of the
furniture industry in countries with high costs of production. CEFFOR is to accomplish this task by means of contributing strategic
information to the social agents and companies who participate in determining enterprise strategies and industry policies.

EFMN Brief No. 151_Furniture Foresight Centre

EFP Brief No. 139: Future Prospects of Care Facilities and Services for the Dependent Elderly in France

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

Following the submission of an initial report in July 2005 on the evolution of illness related to old age and estimations of the number of accommodations available for the dependent elderly, the French minister in charge of elderly affairs asked the Strategic Analysis Centre to further consider how to provide and finance the care of dependent persons until 2025. Relying on a single quantitative scenario, the report proposes a global strategy turning on several key principles: a preference for in-home care and supplying treatment in a welcoming environment, reliance on technological and social innovation, the qualitative improvement of establishments housing the most dependent persons and the use of new regulatory tools in order to promote performance and a better territorial distribution.

Creating a Free Choice Scenario

For economic and social reasons, the French government is willing to give the elderly a freedom of choice regarding
healthcare and accommodations. Such a policy requires the simultaneous and complementary development of services
designed to care for the elderly in their own homes as well as access to retirement homes. A policy to that end has been launched in the framework of the first “Ageing and Solidarity” plan, which includes a significant attempt to increase availability of all the types of care for the dependent elderly. Efficient investment implies an extensive
study of a balanced scenario including the development of a global offer covering all types of home and institutional
care. In this respect, the minister in charge of elderly affairs asked the Strategic Analysis Centre to

  • establish the number of additional rooms in homes for dependant elderly (EHPAD1) needed from 2010-2015 and an estimation for the year 2025,
  • anticipate the number of home care assistants required in these two time horizons,
  • analyse the geographical distribution and propose guidelines for better EHPAD accommodations,
  • examine issues related to financing and ensuring an even geographical distribution.

A first report was elaborated in 2005 with quantitative forecasts including various scenarios of home and institutional care capacities. The second report, published in June 2006, proposes a single scenario, including an estimation of the requested workforce, taking societal and financial aspects into account.

Developing the Scenarios and Political Options

Studying the ageing society implies taking different variables into account such as demography, healthcare improvement, the development of people’s behaviour and also various political options.

In addition to the Strategic Analysis Centre’s staff, the National Institute of Economic Statistics (INSEE), the National Solidarity Fund for Autonomy (CNSA), the health ministry’s department of statistics (DREES) and other central administration resources were solicited for this exercise.

First Report: an Extensive Quantitative Analysis

The first report aimed at exploring possible scenarios for the development of the number of accommodations available for the dependent elderly (EHPAD) for the years 2010, 2015 and 2025. This exercise required the following sequence of calculations:

  • elderly population growth,
  • the development of the prevalence of dependency within this population,
  • the consequences in terms of demand for home and institutional care,
  • achievable supply of accommodations and workforce in this sector.

As a result, five scenarios were adopted to reflect different balances between home and institutional care. In addition, each of these scenarios was developed based on two different dependency rates and for three time-horizons.

In order to calculate the respective workforces that would be required for home and institutional care in each case, the team also had to envisage different levels of assistance.

Second Report: Further Exploration of a Single  Scenario and Elaboration of Recommendations

The second report was elaborated by a group of 60 experts from various local and national institutions, universities, hospitals and associations. Their work also relied on the results of an ethnological study carried out in three different homes for dependent elderly.

First, the group conducted an in-depth analysis of a single scenario by distinguishing different levels of dependency and types of skills required for health care and assistance. The results were used to predict the development of the labour market in this sector until 2025.

Workshops were then organised in order to arrive at recommendations on how to conceive future homes for dependent elderly and optimise the financing of national and local schemes addressing the ageing population.

More Intensive Institutional
Care for the Most Dependent

Demographic development is reasonably predictable. The following chart gives a projection of the number of dependent elderly aged 75 and older:

x 1000

2005 2010 2015 2025 2030
High projection 682 741 808 920 1 017
Low projection 657 691 732 805    855

Source: Insee Destinie, projections Drees-Insee

The first report established five possible scenarios in order to capture the broadest possible range of impacts of population ageing on the caring system:

  • Scenario 1 assumed that the current distribution between home care and institutional care would remain constant, thus predicting an increased need for places in rest homes and other care institutions.
  • Scenario 2 and 3 planned for an increased recourse to home care: for all elderly, irrespective of the level of dependency prevalence (sc. 2), and for all elderly with the exception of the most dependent (sc. 3). These two scenarios led to a reduced need for specialised accommodations.
  • Scenarios 4 and 5 envisaged an increasing recourse to institutional care: for all elderly in scenario 4; for the most dependent only in scenario 5. Scenarios 2 and 4 were abandoned as too extreme, whereas scenario 3 was chosen as the most efficient and socially satisfactory framework for the future development of the French elderly care scheme.

Forecasts on Needs for Accom- modations and Human Resources

In this scenario, the rate of the most dependent elderly benefiting from institutional care is expected to reach 67% by 2010 and then be stabilised. Simultaneously, the rate of less dependent elderly who benefit from home care is expected to rise progressively.

This scenario thus assumes two consequences in terms of accommodations and human resources:

  • intensified care in specialised institutions and
  • more dense and diversified types of home care.
Needs for Specialised Facilities

Consequently, with the projected institutional care rates, the report recommends increasing the number of places in specialised facilities up to 680 000 in 2010 – among them 610 000 for the elderly aged 75 and older – and to stabilise this number after 2010.

The following targets for the distribution of places for the 75+ population show that, even within the institutional care solution, priority is given to temporary, flexible care solutions.

  2010 2015 2025
Little medicalised accommodations 90 000 90 000 90 000
EHPAD 420 000 402 000 392 000
Long-stay hospital accommodations 60 000 60 000 60 000
Temporary accommoda-

tions

40 000 58 000 68 000
Total 610 000 610 000 610 000

Reaching these targets implies various actions: a sustained effort to create new places by 2010, but also withdrawing licences from obsolete structures and converting some nonspecialised accommodations into EHPAD.

Increased Need for Institutional and Home Care Personnel

The population in specialised institutions can thus be expected to increase by 2010 and be comparatively more dependent than it currently is. These two trends justify the need for a drastic increase in personnel in these institutions. The report team has chosen to rely on two projections in terms of supervision rates (number of staff per 100 residents):

  • a low projection: from 57.4 in 2003 to 75.7 in 2025,
  • a high projection: from 57.4 in 2003 to 81.4 in 2025.

As regards home care, the growing share of elderly people who would benefit from this solution implies that the need for staff in the medical, paramedical and social home care sector will also clearly increase.

In the current situation, each dependent person benefits from an average assistance volume of 150 hours per month (the calculation is based on the French dependence allocation distribution). The report team suggests increasing this average volume by 55% by 2025. It must be noted that these projections are based on the assumption that the help currently received by the elderly from their relatives will remain constant, which is all but certain.

Need for institutional and home care staff 2005-2025:

2005 2010 2015 2025
Low institutional care projection
Institut.-care staff 233 400 279 900 296 700 315 500
Home-care staff 375 600 415 500 501 400 739 500
Total 608 900 695 400 798 100 1 055 000
High institutional care projection
Institut.-care staff 233 400 290 000 313 800 333 000
Home-care staff 375 600 415 500 501 400 739 500
Total 608 900 705 500 815 200 1 072 500

In terms of job creation, in total, 342 000 to 360 000 positions will be available in this sector over the next ten years, which represents 4,6% of all available positions in the French economy (this includes net creations and replacements after retirement). Net job creation in the elderly care sector alone can be expected to account for 11% of new jobs in France over the same period.

Guidelines for Better EHPAD Accommodations:
Diversification and Territorial Distribution

The Social Background to the Free Choice Scenario

The target population (aged 85+, 2015-2020) forms a very different social group from today’s elderly. The current babyboomers are more individualistic; they have developed an identity of active (and exigent) consumers, are geographically and professionally mobile and are used to actively deciding upon matters affecting the course of their lives. These features will have to be taken into account in drawing up tomorrow’s care system and the care accommodations it is to provide. This system and the related accommodations will have to – answer a broad diversity of needs and thus provide an equally broad diversity of adapted services and – take into account a diversity of life territories, values and cultures, and thus be equitably distributed geographically to allow the elderly to maintain their life habits.

An EHPAD should ultimately provide its residents with all needed services and assistance, while being a true living place in the full sense of the word. This includes several objectives, which have some technical impacts.

Supporting a Project for Life and Maintaining Social Life
  • Project for life: EHPAD should be conceived so as to allow the residents to further develop and not to simply “end their lives”. This includes preserving their freedom in terms of time and space organisation, favouring creativity and encouraging autonomy.
  • Social life: Residents should be encouraged and supported in the perpetuation of their social life through the preservation of family links. This means that exchanges between the residents and the exterior should be encouraged

(vicinity, city, village etc.)

EHPAD’s Projected Features to Answer these Needs

Localisation elements

  • The geographical distribution of EHPADs should allow residents to remain in the vicinity of their former place of residence in order to facilitate preserving their family and social links.
  • EHPAD’s localisation should ensure a social openness: opportunities for the residents to leave the facility and have access to a city or village.

Technical features

  • Space organization in EHPAD should provide the residents with private, intimate spaces as well as with community spaces.
  • Specific features of the accommodations should allow a customisation of individual living quarters (mobile walls, Internet connections etc.)

Organisational features

  • Security and health norms should be intelligently adapted in order to provide the residents with all necessary services and care while infringing as little as possible upon their liberty.
  • A provision of diversified services should allow the residents to be provided with any needed service (medical and non-medical).

 

Dual Policy Challenge:
Services Synergy & Balanced  Geographical Distribution

The overall financing need over the 2006-2025 period is estimated at a total between 14-29 billion €. This would represent around 1.1% of GDP in 2010, 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2025.  This financial effort is considered not to be insurmountable, on two conditions: that savings are made in other domains in order to alleviate the burden on the social security resources and that an efficient redistribution is conducted between the hospital sector and the dedicated elderly care system.

Ensuring Sufficient Care Personnel

Professional Staff

A specific effort will have to be made to make medical, paramedical and social professions in the elderly care sector more attractive than they are today and to ensure an efficient balance between childcare, hospital care and elderly care staff.

Support to Involved Relatives

Several European states provide financial and fiscal incentives to relatives who reduce their working hours or even suspend their own careers to take care of a parent. In particular, France could follow the example of the German system where the social security system comes up for the social security contributions of people who have stopped working to take care of an elderly person.

Rethinking Programming and Efficiency

Proposing diversified care services while maintaining a fair geographical and cost distribution implies two levels of action:

  • Evaluating and programming at the national level in order to take inventory of the global needs and appreciate the relative financial burdens that have to be assumed locally. The team suggests that all involved actors adopt a unified evaluation methodology, which means rethinking the whole current social aid system. The state would have to shoulder a share of necessary start-up investments to ensure that the restructuring is initiated not only in the wealthier regions but rather equitably throughout the whole territory
  • Transferring a larger share of responsibilities (if not all of them) for elderly care to the French départements (sub-regional administrative level). As local administrations, they would be in a better position to adapt the services offered to local needs and specificities. In this respect, the report team suggests that a better synergy between all types of services be organized, for instance, by allowing EHPADs to manage, through new regulatory rules, the coordination between private and public, medical, paramedical and social services.

The Follow-up

The report was made public in late June 2006 at the same time as the government’s ‘Solidarité Grand Age’ plan, which it heavily draws upon. The plan concerns the 2007-2012 period and is projected to cost the French social security system 2.7 billion €. While most of sector’s representatives have overall welcomed this plan, the related financial allocation was viewed as underestimated.

Authors: Hugo Thenint – Louis Lengrand et Associés (LL&A)                hugo@ll-a.fr
Sponsors: French minister of social security, elderly, disability and family affairs
Type: National – but includes case studies on other countries
Organizer: The Strategic Analysis Centre (former Commissariat au plan)
Duration: 2005-2006
Budget: n.a.
Time Horizon: 2025
Date of Brief: April 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 139_ Elderly Care in France

Sources and References

Strategic analysis centre: http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/article.php3?id_article=277
La documentation française (first report): http://www.ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/rapports-publics/054000490/index.shtml

EFP Brief No. 138: Results of Lab on ‘Old and New Energy’

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

The Club of Amsterdam set up an ‘Old and New Energy Lab’ designed to generate novel and potentially viable plans of action for dealing with energy issues by leveraging brainstorming methods to produce innovative thinking and bypass preconceived ideas and assumptions. The process tapped into the expertise of ‘thought leaders’ chosen for their diversity so as to maximise the fertility of discussions.

Lab Challenges to Think Outside the Box

Diminishing reserves of fossil fuels, climate change, geopo-litical factors and a wave of technological advances are bring-ing complex pressures to bear on the landscape of energy gen-eration and consumption. Change seems inevitable, but react-ing appropriately is a challenge. This is especially so when limited modes of supply and consumption have been en-trenched for extensive periods, as is the case with the energy landscape. This can make it very hard for people to think ‘out-side the box’ – arguably much needed at the moment.Thus the challenge addressed at ‘The Lab’ was to bypass pre-conceptions and traditional ways of thinking. Participants were called upon to brainstorm possibilities and then validate the resulting ideas with some tangible, realistic scenarios.

Conceiving Future Scenarios – the Methodology

Principal approaches employed were Socratic discourse and a future scenario method. Participants were asked to identify a set of driving ‘values’ deemed desirable (e.g. equal access to resources, freedom, quality of life, stability etc.). Socratic dis-course and other techniques were applied to open up discus-sion to the broadest possible level. The outcome was the ob-servation of numerous facts, trends, constraints etc.
The resulting ‘facts’ were then fed into an analysis based on the future scenario method. The values identified earlier were used to drive the scenarios, which were to envision a positive future ten years hence (the goal being to identify possible so-lutions).
Four scenarios were created by choosing two drivers of change: governance and economy. Note that there is nothing absolute about the choice of drivers or even the number of drivers con-sidered, but these were the ones considered most important.
These drivers define the axes of a graph depicting four different environments (symbolized by the numbered circles in the diagram)derived from the possible combinations of extreme cases of both drivers. These environments provided the basis for the scenarios.

138_bild1

Keep in mind that these scenarios are not predictions but simply tools to guide discussion from exploration to identification of potential solutions and analysis of important trends and factors (political, cultural, technological, etc.) and their interactions.

Participants

Four ‘thought leaders’ brought expertise to help keep discussion realistic, whether on technological, economic, political or social levels. Their backgrounds included

  • analysis of new technologies and their commercial and social impact;
  • understanding corruption and conflict resulting from exploitation of natural resources and international trade systems;
  • energy resource analysis and prediction in the context of the International Energy Agency;
  • nuclear policy and law.

Energy Futures – the Four Scenarios

Observations on trends and forces will be split into socioeconomic and cultural, and technological and sectoral. The four scenarios based on these trends and forces will then be outlined before looking at identified opportunities and challenges, which are in turn fed by the scenarios.

Scarcity of Supply, Potential for Conflict, and Environmental Concern – Socio-economic and Cultural Trends/Trend Breaks
  • Rising energy production costs.
  • Concern about climate change (global warming).
  • Increasing sensitivity to energy supply disruption.
  • Concerns over energy dependence and vulnerability.
  • Impending scarcity of fossil fuels with increasing demand from rapidly advancing nations such as China and India.
  • Increasing global tension relating to energy supplies and the possibility of resulting conflict.
  • Environmental concerns about nuclear energy.
  • Increasing interest in alternative energy sources.
  • Increasing interest and efforts in energy conservation.
  • Development of carbon trading schemes.
More Choices and Technological Advances –  Technological and Sectoral Trends/Trend Breaks
  • Capability (in some markets) for energy purchasers to also sell to the grid.
  • Choice (in some markets) over source of energy bought.
  • The nanotechnology ‘revolution’ impacting multiple, interacting energy-related technologies.
  • Multiple parallel and rapid advances in solar technologies promising greater efficiency and/or lower cost.
  • Advances in fuel cells (in many sectors).
  • Advances in batteries and ultracapacitors.
  • Developments in thermoelectrics offering promise for waste heat reclamation and geothermal energy.
  • Availability of smart energy-saving materials (electrochromic or anti-IR window coatings etc.).
  • Lighter/ stronger metals, ceramics and composites.
  • Efficient lighting (especially nanostructured LEDs).
  • Improvements in coal/gas/biomass-to-liquid processes, often driven by improved technology (e.g. nanocatalysis).
  • Advances in hydrogen production and storage.
  • Potential developments in artificial photosynthesis.
  • Potential for low-loss electrical transmission.
  • New CO2 separation technologies.
  • Improved nuclear fission technologies.
The Four Scenarios

Four scenarios were framed assuming environments as described in the methodology section. Remember that they are designed to be optimistic views of a situation ten years hence. Their creation allowed disparate ideas to be brought together in a framework where interactions and socio-economic and political realities could be considered.

Not all the scenarios were recorded in the same degree of detail. Different groups of participants chose different styles of presentation.

 Scenario 1 – ‘Harvesting Energy’ (emerging economy, minimal governance)

The environment envisaged was a poor, sub-Saharan country with village communities as the dominant settlement pattern, poor access to resources and minimal infrastructure. The village in this scenario was assumed to be remote but not overly far from a principal city.

The one plentiful resource is sunshine. New cheap photovoltaics and microloans allow the village to produce electricity. This gives rise to increased productivity and enables more flexibility in trading of staples such as vegetable and meat produce through refrigeration.

The small economic boost and decreasing costs of photovoltaics allow expansion of generating capacity. Direct energy sales become attractive in a future where fossil fuel is expensive and supplies unreliable and the village becomes a supplier of power from solar energy. Improved battery technologies and high fuel prices lead to more electric or hybrid vehicles. Households in and outside the village increasingly use batteries and pay for recharging.

The village has effectively shifted from subsistence agriculture to ‘farming’ sunlight, with batteries as the means of distribution.  The availability of power for transport attracts more vehicles and infrastructure improves. Then cables are laid to directly supply electricity to the nearby city. After all, the village now has the generating capacity, the expertise, and plentiful lowvalue land for expansion. Infrastructure experiences another boost, including communications. The village buys computers and the community now has Internet access. Educational opportunities increase dramatically. Over time the community becomes generally well-educated and thus capable of engaging in even more diverse and complex commercial activities.

Some time in the future (although maybe not in the ten-year frame), solar energy could be captured in a fuel created by artificial photosynthesis, allowing wider export of energy and opening up the solar farming model to more remote communities. This would require importing water (limiting displacement of battery use), but importing water is certainly preferable to importing oil in this (future) day and age.

Scenario 2 – ‘Central Energy Planning’ (emerging economy, strong central governance)

This scenario assumed a top-down, centrally-organised society with an emerging economy. China was offered as an example, on the assumption that much of the traditional communist philosophy still permeates the government, which regulates the allocation of resources. Short-term (business) thinking is constrained for the benefit of the collective when it comes to something as fundamental as national energy supply.

The immediate need for more energy to support growth is urgent. Coal is abundant and coal-fired power stations proliferate, with little thought given to environmental concerns. But this is only the first, quick fix, part of the plan, which is also influenced by oil imports for vehicles, the need to transport energy over great distances and the fact that even coal resources have limits.

Coal-to-liquid processes are used to produce clean diesel to help ease the dependence on oil imports, while a massive research effort creates low-loss electrical transmission based on high-temperature superconductors (doubly important because of the chosen alternative to coal – photovoltaics).

Huge solar ‘plains’ grow in the country’s remote, arid and impoverished west, bringing employment and commerce. Ultimately, the technology becomes simple plastic sheets that can be rolled out and clipped together. They contain nano-engineered structures that exploit the highly-efficient initial step of photosynthesis but feed the liberated electrons into the superconducting transmission lines and on to the energy-hungry coast. China soon becomes a major exporter of these technologies.

In the cities of the East, electric and hybrid cars are encouraged and manufactured. Coal is increasingly used only to produce diesel and dependence on foreign oil now rapidly disappears.

 Scenario 3 – ‘Energy Caps and Taxes’ (strong economy, strong central governance)

Sweden, which aims to become oil-free by 2021, might be an example.

A progressively increasing carbon tax is introduced for individuals and corporations. A flexible power supply network allows individuals to avoid a carbon tax by purchasing energy from sustainable sources. This encourages development of such sources – from the logging and papermaking industries using waste to produce electricity, heat and biofuels, down to individual households generating energy and selling any surplus to the grid.

Central support and legislation for energy-saving technologies in housing and transport increases their uptake through various means. The carbon tax imposes a cost on manufacturers for the lifetime emissions of their products.  The tax alone triggers substantial change, but more comes through governmentdriven, large-scale geothermal, hydroelectric and combined heat and power schemes.

 Scenario 4 – ‘Communicating Energy’ (strong economy, minimal governance, individual action)

This scenario is one of change through popular movements. Analogies might be seen in the growth in the popularity of ‘organic’ produce or that of ‘fair trade’ products, both of which evolved out of grass roots concern. For instance, we can help the environment by buying local produce rather than that shipped great distances, or eating less meat (such unlikely action probably highlights limits to this approach). Other individual contributions are switching lights off, car-pooling, capturing rainwater to water one’s garden or carbon offsetting schemes.

The key is understanding what can be done and creating a culture of willingness and responsibility. Communication is key and the Internet makes this possible as never before.

To some extent this scenario is happening now, but there are clearly limits to how much it can achieve without some topdown initiatives (or economic imperatives) added to the mix.

Top-down Action and Technological Advances are Critical for Seizing Opportunities

The fact that all but one of the scenarios could conceivably address all the main energy issues points to much opportunity. Exploiting this rapidly enough is a major challenge. Another obvious challenge is highlighted by Scenario 4, which suggests that, at least in the developed world, ‘people power’ is not enough and top-down governmental action may well be necessary. Economic and practical pressures would achieve the necessary changes eventually, but it is probably not advisable to wait for the hurricane to prove that you should not have made your house of straw. As for opportunities, the scenarios explored highlight those best. Scenario 1, ‘Harvesting Energy’,
perhaps best illustrates the dramatic achievement that might be had given only certain technological advances. Many other scenarios are possible, of course, and those developed were deliberately positive. But the consensus at The Lab was that all the scenarios were credible, so they probably do represent real opportunities.

Diverse Solutions, Proactive  Government and Advances  in Technology Are Key

In view of policy implications, the full two days of discussion and debate might be briefly summarized in the following manner.1

Oil dependence is a danger that needs addressing

Despite much disagreement about how close ‘peak oil’ is, all seemed to agree that action is needed now to reduce the developed world’s dependence on oil.

Solutions to the problems being faced will be diverse

Different environments are likely to beg different solutions and the diversity of technological developments that bear on the issues prevent simple answers and argue for multiple alternatives to be investigated.

The variation across the scenarios developed suggests that multiple approaches will be needed in parallel, covering conservation, alternative forms of generation, and storage and transmission technologies. The best solution or combination of solutions for a given region will vary with external factors (climate, population density, access to water, etc.) and with developments in numerous interacting technologies. The appropriate focus can vary dramatically depending on the existing situation. For example, a focus on coal in the short-term is sensible for China, if the aim is energy independence, while France might see nuclear in a similar light. In lower latitudes, solar energy will be more quickly economically viable than in higher latitudes, where geothermal may be a better choice. In all cases, conservation makes sense as a priority and gives the most rapid return on investment.

Given this diversity and uncertainty, it seems sensible to recommend broad investment in energy-related R&D and a systematic, inclusive, and iterative analysis of the energy situation at regional scales.

It is worth noting that only two currently achievable sources of energy are sufficient for global needs in the long-term and truly sustainable. They are solar and geothermal energy.

Areas of technological focus to be considered are just as diverse – see section 2 on technological and sectoral trends.

In the developed world government action is probably essential

The ramifications of energy supply disruption and the time needed to change our infrastructure suggest that appropriate change cannot be expected to arise from market and social forces. Accordingly, governments need to be a key player in developed countries. Proactive action from government is almost certainly necessary to avoid the risk of severe economic disruption.

Much of the rest is down to technological developments and their impacts on the economic competitiveness of certain technologies. Though solar emerged from the Lab as the winner in terms of chief long-term global energy sources, the means of capturing it, transporting it and using it produced no clear favourites. The range of possibilities from domestic to industrial to automotive applications in a diverse range of environments suggests that all avenues of research should be actively explored. Since solutions will likely be more complex than the current rather monolithic systems, flexibility, interoperability and rapid adaptability are critical success factors.

In the under-developed world, small changes or actions may have a large and lasting positive effect

When tackling the issue of poverty on a global scale, there may be a possibility of achieving much with little (Scenario 1), given certain technological shifts.

 

Authors: Paul Holister                  paul9@holisters.net
Sponsors: Club of Amsterdam
Type: Field/sector specific
Organizer: Humberto Schwab, humberto@clubofamsterdam.com, Felix Bopp, felix@clubofamsterdam.com
Duration: April 2007
Budget: n.a.
Time Horizon: 2017
Date of Brief: April 2008

Download: EFMN Brief No. 138_ Energy Lab

Sources and References

Club of Amsterdam, Lab on Old and New Energy, April 17 and 18, 2007, in Girona, Spain.

http://www.clubofamsterdam.com/content_list.asp?contentid= 655&contenttypeid=9 

The participating thought leaders were:

  • Nathalie Horbach – Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee;
  • Simon Taylor – director and co-founder, Global Witness;
  • Christof van Agt – independent participant, formerly at the International Energy Agency;
  • Paul Holister – technology impact consultant.

Humberto Schwab, director of the Club of Amsterdam and innovation philosopher, led the process.

EFP Brief No. 132: Target 2020: a Quantitative Scenario on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions for the EU 25

Saturday, May 21st, 2011

An integrated quantitative scenario analysis was conducted to elaborate, describe and evaluate strategies and paths for the European Union to achieve significant reductions in domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The objective of the foresight exercise was to support EU wide consensus formation, to assist in priority-setting, and to help raise awareness with regard to policy, industry or society as a whole.

How to Reach EU Targets on Green House Gas Emissions?

The EU has committed itself to limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C average temperature increase above preindustrial temperatures (Council 2005). According to most recent research, keeping within this threshold requires that global green house gas (GHG) emissions be cut approximately in half by 2050 (Hare & Meinshausen 2004). In fact, global emissions will have to peak and decline in the next one to two decades for temperatures to stay below the 2°C threshold. This consequently indicates that industrialized countries will have to reduce their GHG emissions by approximately 60-80% by 2050 in order to leave room for legitimate economic growth and ensuing higher emissions in developing countries (European Commission 2004). In addition, some developing countries will also need to commit to taking steps toward a less carbon intensive development strategy. To achieve this challenging goal, rapid action is needed. Future commitment periods under the Kyoto Protocol with a likely time horizon of 2013 to 2017 and 2018 to 2022 will thus need to see substantial reduction targets by developed countries. This will be a precursor of further action and commitments on part of developing countries. In January 2005, the European Parliament emphasized “the necessity of significantly enhanced reduction efforts by all developed countries in the medium term to be able to meet the long-term emission reduction challenge”, which it quantified for industrial countries “of the order of 30% by 2020” and “of 60-80% by 2050”. It also called on the EU “to adopt reduction targets at the 2005 Spring European Council which are in line” with these objectives (European Parliament 2005). The European Commission in its communication ”Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change” supported the necessity to limit temperature increases to a maximum of 2°C worldwide compared with pre-industrial levels and confirmed its will to take international leadership towards combating climate change (European Commission 2005). It also documented the relatively low economic costs to do so without even calculating the expected benefits from emissions reductions. Against this background, WWF commissioned the Wuppertal Institute to conduct an integrated scenario analysis of GHG emission reduction potentials of the EU 25 for the year 2020. For this purpose, the Wuppertal Institute developed a strategy scenario called the “policies and measures (P&M) scenario”.

This scenario relies on a baseline derived from the energy and transport projections for Europe (Mantzos et al. 2003). Its strategies and assumptions are based on evaluation and extrapolation of detailed analyses in all sectors, for many countries, and for important energy-using goods and appliances. The most relevant studies were selected for this purpose.

Integrated Scenario Analysis: Business as Usual vs. Active Energy Policy

An integrated scenario analysis of the EU 25 was carried out in order to determine whether and how a reduction of GHG emissions in the order of about 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 could be achieved. The analysis consisted of two scenarios:

The Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assumed policies with no special emphasis on climate protection and energy issues, neither with regard to additional policies since 2003 specifically designed to meet the Kyoto Protocol targets nor to rising energy prices and increasing concern about limited resources. The BAU scenario is mainly based on the data and assumptions made in the most recent energy projections for Europe (Mantzos et al. 2003).

In the P&M scenario, existing cost-effective potential for increasing energy efficiency is exploited and ambitious targets for market penetration of renewable energies are actively pursued. In addition, a switch to less carbon-intensive fossil fuels, such as natural gas, and effective policies and measures to mitigate the exploding demand in the transport sector are assumed under the P&M scenario. The P&M scenario includes a moratorium on new nuclear power plants and compliance with the nuclear phase-out schemes in the respective countries concerned.

Quantification and combination of potential, strategies, policies and measures, and the calculation of scenarios were conducted using the Wuppertal scenario modelling approach.

  • The modelling technique uses a technology-oriented, sectoral bottom-up approach. Reflecting its relevance for GHG emissions, the energy sector is modelled in greatest detail, using appliance or end-use specific sub-models for each demand sector (households, tertiary, industry, transport) and a purpose-oriented model of the transformation sector (cp. Fischedick, Hanke and Lechtenböhmer 2002). GHG emissions in the energy sector are calculated based on the final and primary energy balance. CH4 and N2O emissions in the energy sector are calculated by subsector, using a simplified approach based on current sector-specific emission factors.
  • Other sectors and greenhouse gases are covered by specific sub-models, which are adapted to the currently limited information available for these sectors.
  • The modelling technique applies a heuristic (i.e. expertbased) approach in order to identify potential, to formulate strategies, and to estimate market penetration rates of new technologies, market shares of fuels, etc.

The Business as Usual Scenario

Although the BAU includes considerable energy-efficiency improvements in all energy-consuming sectors, increasing renewable energy shares and a decoupling of gross energy consumption growth (+0.7% p.a.) from GDP growth (+2.4% p.a.), no reduction of GHG emissions from energy use can be achieved by 2020 under BAU conditions. On the contrary, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are expected to increase by 10% compared to 2000 levels.

These results highlight the fact that with the existing EU climate policies the Kyoto targets for the first commitment period (ranging from 2008 to 2012), which aim at a reducing emissions of six gases by 8 % compared to 1990 for the EU 15 and slightly lower reductions for the new member states, will not be met even if further greenhouse gas emission reductions in other sectors and gases are taken into account. Tougher long-term targets for the following periods up to 2020, which are crucial for mitigating climate change, seem to be even more out of reach with BAU policies.

The Policies & Measures Scenario

To explore how the BAU development could be redirected toward a more sustainable course, a sectorally disaggregated high efficiency scenario was developed for the EU 25. The P&M scenario includes policies and measures specifically geared toward enhancing emissions reductions. Supplementary to the high efficiency strategy, a renewable strategy is outlined which is based on the medium-term potential for renewable energy within the EC (European Commission 2004) and can be expected to produce substantial additional emissions reductions.

The P&M scenario describes an ambitious energy efficiency strategy, which covers all demand sectors and is projected to lead to final energy savings of about 22% versus BAU by 2020. This would mean stabilising final energy demand at about current levels.

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Combined with a similar strategy to boost the use of renewable energies, their share could be increased to 21 % of total primary energy supply and about 37 % of electricity production in the EU 25 until 2020 (BAU: 7.15 % / 7.32 %).

These two effects – stabilising energy consumption through energy efficiency at all levels and maintaining domestic production by increased production of renewable energies – will not only allow to reduce domestic GHG emissions by more than 30% but at the same time will enable to bring the trend toward increasing import dependency to a halt. Domestic energy production would be able to deliver about half of European energy consumption.

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This means that economic and ecological risk minimization can be achieved. As compared to BAU, the P&M scenario will reduce risks and potential costs of climate change as far as possible as well as other environmental damages incurred as external costs of energy supply.

Towards a Comprehensive Policy Package

In order to change the course from BAU trends, which lead to increased energy demand, greater dependency on foreign resources, and accumulating risks, towards a sustainable energy strategy, a comprehensive policy package is needed.

Combining the EU emission trading system with a comprehensive set of sector- and technology-specific policies and measures for energy end-use and supply efficiency, such as combined heat and power (CHP), and electricity generation from renewable energies has to play a leading role, as the emission trading scheme covers sectors that are expected to account for about 60 % of total emission reductions in our P&M scenario. Consequently, national caps have to be set to ensure an overall 2.8 % per year decrease in emissions. Strong policies and measures for transport, for energy efficiency, in support of thermal uses of renewable energies, CHP heating and housing renovation.

Making Active Climate  Protection Feasible

The study concludes that an integrated and active climate protection strategy for the EU is not only necessary in order to mitigate impending global climate change but is also feasible, as such a strategy would spur the EU economy to accelerate improvement of energy efficiency and to adapt power systems to renewable energy supply. Furthermore, it represents an approach suited for minimizing risks, not only of global warming but also of disruptions in energy supply and of increasing energy prices.

  • Our analyses show that there is huge and cost-effective potential for improved energy efficiency in all sectors to stabilise EU energy consumption at or below current levels (about 22 % below BAU) and that a share of more than 20 % of renewable energy supply can be achieved under an active strategy. Overall these results show that a 30 % target for 2020, as envisaged by the European Parliament on the on the 13th of January 2005 (European Parliament
    2005), is achievable when actively employing the available strategies.
  • This makes clear that the necessary reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by exploiting the potential for cost-efficient energy savings and expanded use of renewable energy sources.
  • Another important result is that an active climate protection strategy yields further benefits in form of massively reduced risks of energy shortages and energy price peaks. It relieves the European economy from the burden of high energy costs and also reduces other environmental strains. The results show that the strategy described by the P&M scenario is superior to a “muddling through”, business as usual development with regard to quite a number of important economic and ecological variables. EU policy makers are well advised to further intensify and accelerate their efforts to speed up energy efficiency improvements in all sectors, to support further expansion of CHP, and to prioritise renewable energy sources in the necessary replacement of a large proportion of the European power plant stock.

Translating Results into Policy

The study, published in summer 2005, was probably the first to draw a complete, though rough, scenario for the EU 25 in line with the target indicated by the European Parliament: a domestic reduction of GHG emissions by more than 30 % by 2020. In the P&M scenario, the study briefly sketched the general feasibility, the sectoral distribution, as well as the technology and the policy requirements for achieving more than 20% final energy savings versus BAU and expanding renewable energies to deliver more than 20% of EU primary energy supply.

In so doing, the study already anticipated the key targets of the “triple 20” climate policy package adopted by the EU Spring Council in 2007. Moreover, it also gives evidence for the fact that energy savings of 20% compared to BAU and a share of 20% renewable energies have the potential to reduce EU 25 GHG emissions by about 30%, which is substantially more than the 20% the EU has so far decided upon.

Authors: Stefan Lechtenböhmer stefan.lechtenboehmer@wupperinst.org
Sponsors: WWF European Policy Offices, Brussels WWF Germany, Berlin
Type: Single issue
Organizer: Wuppertal Institute for Climate Energy Environment, Doeppersberg 19, D-42103 Wuppertal, Germany; info@www.wupperinst.org
Duration: 2004-2005
Budget: n.a.
Time Horizon: 2020
Date of Brief: February 2008

Sources and References

Council of the European Union (2005): European Council Brussels, 22 and 23 March 2005, Presidency Conclusions, 7619/05. Brussels: European Union.

http://ue.eu.int/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/ec/84 335.pdf.

European Commission (2004): Action on Climate Change Post 2012: A Stakeholder Consultation on the EU’s Contribution to Shaping the Future Global Climate Change Regime, available at:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/future_acti on.htm.

European Commission (2005): Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change. Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament etc. Brussels.

European Parliament (2005): European Parliament resolution on the outcome of the Buenos Aires Conference on Climate Change, P6_TA-PROV(2005)005.

Fischedick, M., Hanke, T. & Lechtenböhmer, S. (2002): Wuppertal Modellinstrumentarium, in: Forum für Energiemodelle und Energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalysen in Deutschland (Hrsg.): Energiemodelle zum Kernenergieausstieg in Deutschland, Heidelberg, p. 348 – 377.

Hare, B. & Meinshausen, M. (2004): How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided?, submitted to EU’s stakeholder consultation on Action on Climate Change Post 2012.

Lechtenböhmer, S., Grimm, V., Mitze, D., Wissner, M. (2005a), Energy efficiency as a key element of the EU’s post-Kyoto strategy: results of an integrated scenario analysis. In: Energy savings: what works & who delivers, ECEEE 2005 Summer Study Proceedings; volume 1. Stockholm: Europ. Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2005, p. 203-212.

Lechtenböhmer, S., Grimm, V., Mitze, D., Thomas, S., Wissner, M. (2005b) Target 2020, Policies and Measures to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, Scenario analysis on behalf of WWF-European Policy Office, Wuppertal, Brussels, 90p.

Mantzos, L. et al. (2003): European energy and transport trends to 2030, published by DG TREN, Brussels.

Download: EFMN Brief No. 132_Target_2020

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