Our study intends to present disruptive and challenging events, i.e. wildcard scenarios, with a significant impact on the aviation industry. We aim to assist decision and policy makers in preparing for the future and enrich decision making processes on possible courses of action by presenting a robust and reliable decision support system and creating awareness for opportunities in strategy and policy. We demonstrate how a Delphi survey (in our case a real-time variant) can be applied as a starting point to systematically develop wildcard scenarios by conducting a deductive wildcard analysis.
Posts Tagged ‘economy’
EFP Brief No. 192: Delphi-based Disruptive and Surprising Transformation Scenarios on the Future of AviationThursday, August 18th, 2011
The brief describes the design and implementation of a success scenario workshop used in Malta to allow industry to give a foresight-based input to the design of innovation policy. The exercise drew upon the results of several industry-level studies in the small new EU member state aimed at identifying the drivers and inhibitors of private sector R&D and innovation investments.
The purpose of this study was to identify emerging technology opportunities that the Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA) and the Tian-jin Economic-Technological Development Area (TEDA) in Tianjin, China could incorporate into their strategic vision and plan for economic development through technological innovation, to analyze the drivers and barriers that they would face, and to provide action plans for implementation.