Transport and mobility are fundamental and vital for the economy and society worldwide. For Europe, efficient and sustainable transport and mobility is essential for participating competitively in the world economy, supporting the prosperity of Europe. Transport and mobility has grown substantially over the past decades, given relatively low oil prices, expanding infrastructure and relatively loose environmental constraints. Nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that transport and mobility can no longer grow on the same path without serious environmental, social and economic consequences. Technological innovation can support the transition to a more efficient and sustainable European transportation system, by focusing on three main areas: improving vehicle’s efficiency through new engines, materials and design including the electrification of road; developing cleaner energy through new fuels and propulsion systems; and developing more efficient, safer and secure transport systems through information and communication technologies. The integration of ICT in the transportation system (infrastructure, vehicles and traffic management) is one of the main topics suggested for a European Innovation Partnership on ‘Smart mobility for Europe’s citizens and businesses’. Smart mobility is a broad concept succeeding the concept of intelligent transport systems (ITS) involving making transport systems intelligent through the use of ICT (with the term smart mobility in particular wireless communication systems) to continuously inform decision making on why or how to travel or transport. Smart mobility is not an end in itself, but rather a means to answer the challenge of an European transport system that is resource- and energy-efficient, environmentally-friendly, safe and seamless across all transport modes for the benefit of citizens, the economy and society.

What will the future of smart mobility and transportation look like and how to make smart mobility and transportation a reality?

The European Foresight Platform (EFP) organizes a workshop in which the main aim is to translate the outcomes of the many foresight in the area of mobility and transport into support for policy making addressing smart mobility.

Programme will be available soon.

Interested? Please contact annelieke.vandergiessen@tno.nl

This report explores likely future changes in family and household structures in OECD countries; identifies what appear to be the main forces shaping the family landscape between now and 2030; discusses the longer-term challenges for policy arising from those expected changes; and on the basis of the three subsequent thematic chapters, suggests policy options for managing the challenges on a sustainable basis.

You can buy e-book and paper versions on the OECD website.

From the conference website:

The Track focuses on developing greater understanding of Strategic Foresight in organization’s day to day thinking, acting and the link to strategizing and (long term) strategies. Strategic foresight is our capacity for both sensemaking and probing the future. In organizational environments characterized by ambiguity and complexity, medium to long term forecasts and predictions become less reliable strategic planning processes, other techniques and reasoning must be employed to understand these ambiguous and complex organizational environments. This poses a challenge for both practicing managers and academic scholars attempting to make sense of these unfolding and changing environments – how organizations perceive, respond or enact foresightful insights?

Visit the conference website for more information. Registration and paper submission details are not available yet.

As mentioned in the project description, in FESTOS it was planned to identify and assess evolving security threats posed by the abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies and new scientific knowledge, which basically means to do research on the dark side of technology. The workshop with the topic “Technology Foresight: Security Threats and Responses” was structured in three sessions, based on the main FESTOS objectives,

• identification of future security threats posed by emerging technologies
• presentation of narrative scenarios
• assessment of the need for knowledge control
• and evaluation of policy measures to cope with the threats

At the conference some nice weak signals for upcomming possible threats, caused by emerging technologies were presented. Sorted by the time of sufficient maturity, these are the weak signals:

2012

Smartphone technologies mash-ups
“New mobile phones could enable “open source intelligence” to be carried out discretely and without any special equipment. A smartphone with video camera and GPS device can can enable terrorists or criminals to easily collect location-based video imagery of possible target areas. New combinations with advanced augmented reality and other features could be even more useful for planning and executing malicious actions.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2012; Easiness of abuse: 3.7; Threat severity: 3.5

Cloud Computing
“As private and public organisations are handing storage and other tasks to outside providers, new opportunities arise for hacking and cyber-attacks.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2012; Easiness of abuse: 3.3; Threat severity: 3.5

2018

Internet of Things
Experts have warned that the security risks of the internet of things are first of all related to privacy issues.” However even a simple act of shutting down important IoT services by terrorists, might create chaos.[FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2018; Easiness of abuse: 3.6; Threat severity: 3.5

Synthetic Biology
“Such technologies in wrong hands could facilitate production of current and new biological warfare agents, without special need of large biotech production facilities. Engeniered organisms could be released into the enviroment with orders to attack.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2018; Easiness of abuse: 3.2; Threat severity: 3.4

2023

Cyborg Insects
Cyborg insects, controlled through neuro-implants, “could be used by perpetrators for harming people, spying or other malicious activities. Swarms of such insects could be directed at agricultural areas for harmful purposes, e.g. to damage crops.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2023; Easiness of abuse: 3.3; Threat severity: 3.1

Molecular Manufacturing
“Molecular manufacturing could be used to create new hazardous materials, or new types of weapons. If versatile and sufficiently small nanofactories are developed, such items could be created anytime anywhere, including in sensitive locations places where no weapons are allowed.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2023; Easiness of abuse: 2.5; Threat severity: 2.5

2030

Swarm Robotics
“Robot swarms may pose a threat in the future, if the self adaption and self-reprogramming are employed for malitious behaviour of the swarm. They could perform new kinds of coordinated attacks in which for example each robot carries a small dose of explosives, combined together to cause a large damage.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2030; Easiness of abuse: 2.9; Threat severity: 3

Programmable Matter
“Programmable matter can provide a perfect camouflage of any object, e.g. in areas where weapons are prohibited.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2030; Easiness of abuse: 2.3; Threat severity: 2.8

Self-replicating Nano-assemblers
Self-replicating may include certain dangourges. “While uncontroled runaway replication is considered by experts as highly unlikely and can be prevented by appropriate safeguards, one can not preclude intentional malicous design of such devices for wrong doings.” [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2030; Easiness of abuse: 2.75; Threat severity: 2.9

Nanotechnology-enabled Brain Implants
Brain implants could be used for thought- or behavioural-control of humans. Brainwashed people can cause social unrests, violence, etc. . Terrorists might use this technic to get “super mental power”. [FESTOS Alert Report, 2011]
Time of sufficient maturity: 2030; Easiness of abuse: 2.7; Threat severity: 3

In Session 1 the overall results of the project about the sources of future security threats were discussed. As a selection of specific results, Aharon Hauptman did talk about “Technology horizon scanning – emerging technologies and future threats” and Roman Peperhove presented his results on possible “Cyber-Insects attacks”. A more in detail list of these results is available on the project home page.

Session 2 was more about the epistemic and ethical implication of the project with a discussion about the “Freedom of knowledge in the era of emerging technologies”. Ewa Rokicka and Tal Soffer had their presentation about “The knowledge control dilemma” and in an enlightening panel discussion the drawbacks between scientific freedom of speech and security needs of society were discussed. On the on hand, it is necessary to do research about the dark side of technology.

Finally in Session 3 the policy implication were discussed with insights into how to prepare for future threats. Burkhard Auffermann had a presentation about “Coping with the threats: FESTOS policy recommendations and after some presentations about cyber security, as an example for a “not so new” thread alert, a wide range of national policy perspectives were discussed and examples of policy implementations due to FESTOS results were mentioned.

So the overall impression of the final conference was, that there are quite some valuable results and the direction of research is important to increase the resilience of our society. We wish the FESTOS Consortium good luck in their FESTOS 2 proposal.

Jari Kaivo-oja, a Foresight specialist in the FESTOS Consortium has graciously agreed to write a brief about FESTOS later on, which you will find then in the brief section of EFP.

A conference under the theme of “Foresight a Way to View the Future” was organized in Astana as part of the Innovation Forum devoted to the 20^th anniversary of Independence of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Innovation Forum, which was opened by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Mr. Karim Masimov had the main objective to summarise the industrial and innovative development of Kasakhstan throughout the 20 years of its independence and to provide a platform for dialogue on prospective directions of innovative development of the country in the long run.

The Forum brought together representatives of government agencies, international agencies, Kazakhstani business, international partners, as well as existing and potential foreign partners for future collaborations.

Several events were hosted in the framework of the Innovation Forum: The first meeting of the Presidential Innovations Club, which was opened by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan H. E. Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Lean Technologies Conference, a Commercialisation Conference, the Foresight Conference, an Innovative Projects Exhibition and a Youth Debate Tournament on Innovations.

The Foresight Conference provided the opportunity to discuss preliminary results of the first Science and Technology Foresight in Kasakhstan in 2010 and 2011 with leading international institutions in the planning and orientation of government science and technology policies and the promotion of policy related foresight research that have experience in the establishment of National Foresight Programmes in a diversity of country contexts, such as the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR), the United National Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT). Taking into account the high importance attributed to the role of foresight in shaping the strategies to underpin Kazakhstan’s future industrial development, the organizers of the conference highly appreciated the presentation of the European Experience in Foresight Research that was held by AIT. The long list of European foresight initiatives, in which AIT continues to play a leading role have been imperative for the evolution of national and European S&T policy frameworks. The presentation of the European Foresight Platform (EFP) and the INFU project, which provides insights on new innovation patterns, such as open innovations, that will become widely diffused in the future provided a new understanding from a European perspective how foresight may be employed as a strategic tool to achieve a better understanding of plausible long-term scenarios for changing innovation processes and configurations and their implications for society and economy in the context of Kazakhstan’s future industrial development.

During the 27^th and 28^th of October, the iKnow project organized its final conference in Brussels under the theme “Towards a Strategic Issue Management System for Science, Technology and Innovation”. During the conference, new methods and tolls developed by iKnow to support foresight, horizon scanning and forward-looking activities (FLAs) were presented to a mixed audience of stakeholders from different academic and practitioner communities. The main objective of the conference was to launch the key recommendations and outcomes from the project that have wider applications to the European Research Area and many related future-oriented activities. The activities from a half-dozen workshops , over 60 interviews, large scale-Delphi surveys, systematic horizon scanning of over 1,000 ERA-relevant issues, the Practical Guide on Wild Cards and Weak Signals as well as the ERA toolkit were presented to a targeted audience that included supranational, national and sub-national actors involved in research and innovation policy shaping, risk analysis and strategic planning.

The thematic and methodological synergies between the European Foresight Platform (EFP) and the iKnow project, such as the development of the mapping framework, were presented during a panel session on the theme “Optimising Research and Collaboration Agendas”.

In sum, the final conference of the iKnow project was a good occasion to address the key issues underpinning the support activities carried out in the framework of the EFP project to a broad audience of interested stakeholders. The participation of the EFP in this conference was highly appreciated by the organizers of the iKnow conference and it offered a variety of interesting information relevant to the EFP as well as several opportunities for future collaboration of the EFP with a diversity of international foresight networks.

“The current policy focus is on the intelligent use of public procurement of innovation, but increasingly a more comprehensive mix of tools are being applied. However, current ‘demand-side’ policy practices are not broadly underpinned by academic studies on appropriate designs and effects of policy.

This conference seeks to fill that gap. It aims at bringing together academic contributions on the role of policy to target and mobilise demand for innovation. We invite empirical contributions that provide new evidence on the effects and preconditions of policies. We also welcome new theoretical approaches that help to inspire a critical discourse on the underlying rationales.”

Deadline for paper submissions is January 13th 2012. Read the announcement (PDF) for more information.

“The goals of the Europe 2020 initiative of the European Commission for reviving the economy of the European Union can be briefly summarised as the achievement of “Smart, Sustainable, and Inclusive Growth” with greater coordination of national and European policy by 2020. How to achieve these goals and to maintain European competitiveness is now hotly debated among European policy makers. A careful research and analysis of public policies has become essential in order to inform policy-making communities.
The aim of this workshop is to bring together original research papers relevant for the “EUROPE 2020” initiative produced by both distinguished international scholars and IPP researchers. The workshop will consist of three sessions dedicated to “Smart Growth”, “Green Growth”, and “Inclusive Growth”.”

For more information, see the workshop website: http://www.congresos.cchs.csic.es/europe2020/

Some quotes:

“This platform will power Exploratories, to detect and mitigate crises, and Participatory Platforms, to support the decision-making of policy-makers, business people and citizens, and to facilitate a better social, economic and political participation. [...]

FuturICT as a whole will act as a Knowledge Accelerator, turning massive data into knowledge and technological progress. [...]

The FuturICT flagship proposal intends to unify hundreds of the best scientists in Europe in a 10 year 1 billion EUR program to explore social life on earth and everything it relates to.”

The Daily Mail also has a news item on the project with the sensational title “Get ready for the supercomputer that can predict the future (even the next recession)”. Visit the project website for more information: http://www.futurict.eu/.

Will this leave foresight practicioners without a job, in the future?

“The plea for innovation is universal. Managers and politicians have understood that innovation is needed on an everyday-basis to strengthen the competitiveness of organisations, regions and countries. Innovation, however, requires more than good ideas and intentions. Leadership, foresight, courage, investment, inspiration and perspiration are needed to turn intentions and ideas into effective action. Even with these elements in place, not every initiative is successful. However, every action and each experience provide new insights into the causes of failed and successful innovation. Successful innovators, be they individuals, organisations, intermediaries or policy makers, must therefore overcome the paradox of building on experience, and yet breaking away from the status quo, with a permanent innovation mindset. These challenges of “Action for Innovation” are the core focus of this conference.”

How does foresight contribute to “Action for Innovation”? Find more details on the conference on its website.