Our study intends to present disruptive and challenging events, i.e. wildcard scenarios, with a significant impact on the aviation industry. We aim to assist decision and policy makers in preparing for the future and enrich decision making processes on possible courses of action by presenting a robust and reliable decision support system and creating awareness for opportunities in strategy and policy. We demonstrate how a Delphi survey (in our case a real-time variant) can be applied as a starting point to systematically develop wildcard scenarios by conducting a deductive wildcard analysis.
Archive for August, 2011
EFP Brief No. 192: Delphi-based Disruptive and Surprising Transformation Scenarios on the Future of Aviation
Thursday, August 18th, 2011EFP Brief No. 191: Transportation & Logistics 2030
Thursday, August 18th, 2011The following foresight brief presents the findings of the innovative real-time Delphi study “Transportation and Logistics 2030 Vol. 2” prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ transportation unit and the Supply Chain Management Institute (SMI) at the EBS Business School, Germany. Overall, 104 experts assessed 16 projected futures in terms of probability of occurrence, impact on the transportation and logistics (T&L) industry, and desirability of occurrence. By deriving conclusions organised around four general themes, possible scenarios for the future of logistics were drawn. The purpose was to identify key developments in the T&L industry by the year 2030. In addition, the effects on the transport infrastructure environment from a governmental and an engineering and construction industry perspective were assessed and opportunities for governments were derived.
EFP Brief No. 190: Agriculture and the Challenges of Energy
Wednesday, August 10th, 2011Energy in agriculture is all too often seen as a purely cyclical issue whereas it brings more complex challenges in terms of economic stability for agricultural holdings, impacts on the environment and climate, on food supply chains and spatial planning. The present brief describes the main results of a prospective study led by the Centre for Studies and Strategic Foresight (at the French Ministry of Agriculture). A group of experts used the scenario method to imagine possible futures of the agriculture-energy system in 2030 and help identify priorities and options for public action.
EFP Brief No. 189: Foresight for EU-Russia R&D and Innovation Cooperation
Wednesday, August 10th, 2011R&D and innovation cooperation between the EU, its member states (MS), the countries associated (AC) to the FP7 and Russia is developing dynamically at the multilateral as well as bilateral levels. In this context and within the framework of the EU-FP7 funded ERA.Net RUS project, a foresight exercise is being implemented. Structural and thematic scenarios for a sustainable R&D and innovation cooperation between the countries involved will be developed with the time horizon of 2020. The foresight results will lay the groundwork for a joint R&D and innovation funding programme and will be fed into the policy making process on R&D and innovation cooperation between the EU, the EU MS/AC and Russia.
EFP Brief No. 188: Improving Foresight through Methodological Innovation
Wednesday, August 10th, 2011We present insights into the design and execution of an international large-scale project on the future of logistics by the year 2025. The basis of our research was an innovative real-time Delphi application. We applied a multi-methodology framework including a real-time Delphi, a futures conference and participatory expert workshops. This allowed for cross-validation and a strong participatory inclusion of policy makers. An example shows how a multi-stakeholder environment can be approached using innovative foresight tools. We illustrate a research case study that aligns foresight activities with a rigorous scientific procedure.
EFP Brief No. 188_Improving Foresight through Methodological Innovation
EFP Brief No. 187: Using Foresight to Involve Industry in Innovation Policy
Thursday, August 4th, 2011The brief describes the design and implementation of a success scenario workshop used in Malta to allow industry to give a foresight-based input to the design of innovation policy. The exercise drew upon the results of several industry-level studies in the small new EU member state aimed at identifying the drivers and inhibitors of private sector R&D and innovation investments.
EFP Brief No 187_Using Foresight to Involve Industry in Innovation Policy
EFP Brief No. 186: Is Technology Still Enough to Change the World?
Thursday, August 4th, 2011The EU has a long tradition of legitimating its policies based on its “technical charisma”. The European Commission’s initiatives are justified economically and supported politically through a strong link between science and policy-making. In this framework, forward-looking activities and quantitative models play a critical role, even more so in the field of R&D. It thus comes at no surprise that several FTA exercises have been implemented in the industrial technologies area in order to define priorities for research and to set up the R&D agenda.
EFP Brief No. 185: Practical Applications of Foresight Approaches in U.S. Analytical Studies of S&T Futures
Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011Foresight activities at the U.S. National Research Council have a long history (nearly 150 years) and have occurred under various names. They are best known in the form of evidence-based analytical studies of particular scientific, engineering, medical or societal issues that provide not only state-of-the-art snapshots of the underlying science but also analyse future needs to maximise gains for science, engineering and medicine as well meeting society’s goals. The impact of the studies is on policymakers, programme managers, the various research sectors (academic, industrial etc.) and the informed public.
