Archive for the ‘until 2040’ Category

EFP Brief No. 238: Research Agenda Dutch Mobility System, Energy System and Built Environment 2040

Friday, December 21st, 2012

Scenario forecasts for the Dutch mobility system, energy system and built environment in 2040 were performed to investigate which knowledge TNO should develop to support and stimulate future innovation in these fields. Three scenario studies were conducted to investigate the Dutch built environment, the Dutch energy system and the Dutch mobility system. The results serve to strengthen the TNO strategy statement.

Identifying Dutch Research Priorities for Future Mobility, Energy and Built Environment

Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO is an independent research organisation whose expertise and research make an important contribution to the competitiveness of companies and organisations, to the economy and to the quality of society as a whole. It’s activities are split into seven thematic domains; healthy living, industrial innovation, defence, safety and security, energy, transport and mobility, built environment and information society.

 TNO needs to update it’s strategy every four years to announce which societal issues it will address in their next strategy period and how it will apply the funds which are administered by the Dutch government. In order to formulate a strategy that is robust for future developments TNO used scenario planning in order to test its strategy against multiple possible future

Creating a Shared Vision

The objective of the scenario study is threefold:

1) to find what knowledge should be developed to deal with future challenges,

2) to test the TNO strategy against future scenario’s

3) to find the most important factors influencing the development of technologies in mobility, energy and the built environment and

4) to create a shared vision on future development amongst the participants.

Scenario Method

For the future forecast TNO applied a scenario method which is based on the original work of Kees van der Heijden for Shell (Heijden, 1996). For each of the three subjects a separate study was performed, consisting of a series of three workshops. Within these workshops the participants identified the main uncertainties in the future developments in the respective fields. Subsequently, these fields were clustered and scored for importance and level of uncertainty. Based on the two most important/uncertain uncertainties the participants developed four scenarios to describe the possible future outcomes.

In the scenario process an average of 25 TNO specialists per subject participated in the scenario development process. Selection of participants was based on coverage of all relevant expertise within the subject, furthermore participants were selected for their ability to overview developments in the entire field. Specialist were available on: key (emergent) technologies, finance, economy, policy, rules and regulations and international relations.

 

Clusters of Uncertainties

In the first workshop the participants were asked to name the most uncertain factors which would determine the future developments in energy, mobility and the built environment. The results were clustered into 6-15 clusters of uncertainties. Which clusters of uncertainties were most influential and uncertain was determined by popular vote and discussion.

For each subject the project the following major uncertainties were identified:

Mobility

Strong governmental control vs. market driven and an individual society vs. a collective society.

Energy

Governmental control vs. market driven and lack of international cooperation vs. strong international cooperation.

Built environment

An individual risk prone society vs. a collective risk averse society and spread low economic growth vs. concentrated high economic growth.

Within the projects the experts developed two or four scenarios in group discussions. These scenarios are based on the two uncertainties that are considered most uncertain/influential for the subject. In the following sections the results of the scenario studies for the three subjects will be discussed separately. First the scenarios are described, then aspects which are relevant for all different scenarios or vary between scenarios are discussed and finally a draft technological research agenda is compiled.

Mobility: Four Scenarios Discussing the Shades of Governmental Control and Societal Involvement

Scenario I: Driven by individualism, the government limits is effort to a small number of activities that protect the rights of its citizens. The government facilitates market activities by providing a stable environment for economic growth. The scenario shows high economic competition, with a European home-market.

Scenario II: The government is strict, yet righteous. The government uses her influence through laws and setting norms and standards that are based on firm societal support. – after all, these are made in the public interest. Laws and regulations are firmly maintained.

Scenario III: The government has a minor role, market forces are trusted upon to ensure innovation. This way people can vote with their wallets.

Scenario IV: The influence of the government on societal issues is limited. Society is too complex and interests too divers to find a common ground for governmental action. Collective values are shared by joining communities that share our values and warrant your interest.

 

Mobility in the Context of the Four Scenarios

The developments in the mobility system are very uncertain. All scenarios are equally conceivable. Therefore, a strategy should be developed that is able to cope with different future developments.

Future developments in transport are highly dependent on the available infrastructure, vehicle- and fuel developments and the effect transport has on the environment and society.

All scenarios point to mobility that is concentrated on roads. Congestion will be a lasting problem. External effects are tackled with technological solutions.

Biofuels, hydrogen and electricity will play a more important role in mobility.

 

Scenario Specific Findings

  • In some scenarios a European network of high-speed rail connections is developed.
  • Solutions to congestion are scenario specific: optimisation of infrastructure usage, transport services or smart logistics.
  • Also solution to externalities are scenario specific, ranging from efficient driving mechanisms to capture of pollutants.
  • Transport- and travel volume are scenario dependent and depend on price. This price may increase, because of internalisation of external cost and high fuel prices, or drop because of more fuel efficient techniques.
  • The degree to which biofuels, hydrogen and electricity will play a more important role in mobility is dependent on the role of the government.

For TNO’S future Technological Research Agenda these findings imply that further knowledge is needed about:

  • Energy efficient vehicles;
  • Alternative driving mechanisms;
  • ITS systems for:
    • Managing mobility issues
    • Managing traffic
      • Communication between vehicles for increased safety and traffic flow enhancement;
    • Impact assessment of infrastructure;
    • Robust infrastructure;
    • Reliability of infrastructure;

Energy: Two Scenarios Discussing the Shades of Governmental Control and International Cooperation

Scenario I: Countries form a collective to face the global challenges, such as climate change. The national government firmly takes the initiative for bringing (sustainable) change.

Scenario II: : International governments and organizations are suspicious of each other. Countries compete for available energy sources. The national government is reactive and aimed at facilitating change processes initiated by industries and NGO’s.

Energy in the Context of the Two Scenarios

The entire built environment will be transformed to become energy neutral. More energy production will take place locally with solar (pv and warmth), Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) and geothermic energy.

Fossil fuels will remain an important source of energy. Whereas, biofuels and hydrogen will only play a small role in the Dutch energy system.

Scenario specific findings

  • The degree to which societal costs are included in the price for fossil fuels is largely dependent on the degree of governmental control.
  • The choice for climate change mitigation or adaptation is largely dependent on the degree of governmental control and international cooperation.
  • The degree to which local energy systems are developed collectively or independently is largely dependent on the degree of governmental control.
  • The emergence of a international smart grid and large scale energy storage capacity is largely dependent on the degree of international cooperation.
  • The large scale deployment of carbon capture and storage is largely dependent on the degree of international cooperation.
  • The substitution of oil by coal of gas is largely dependent on the degree of governmental control

Accordingly, in the energy sector, TNO will need knowledge to boost their Technological Research Agenda. Knowledge is needed about:

  • ways to include new technology in existing products;
  • insulation;
  • separate transport systems for inside and outside cities;
  • preparing the electricity network for larger fluctuations in supply and demand;
  • large scale storage of electricity and warmth;
  • small scale storage of electricity and warmth;
  • how to deal with the interaction between local networks, national networks and international networks of electricity, gas, warmth and CO2;
  • implementation of renewable energy systems;
  • mass-production of renewable energy systems.

Built environment: Four Scenarios Discussing the Shades of Collectiveness and Economic Prosperity

Scenario I: It is a self-service economy. Small government has prevailed. The economy is in a recession, especially in cities, resulting in more regional economic activity.

Scenario II: People strive for individual gain, and are willing to take risks. The Netherlands is a flourishing and innovative country. The economic growth is concentrated around the Randstad and a limited number of other cities.

Scenario III: People are more dependent on each other because of the fragile economic situation.

Scenario IV: Economic prosperity leads to collective appreciation of wellbeing.

Built Environment in the Context of the Four Scenarios

End consumers will get more influence in the building process. Buildings will have to become more adaptable during the different phases of life and individual needs. Elderly people will become a more important target group.

Scenario specific findings

Dense urban environments and intensive land use are themes which are important in the two scenarios with a concentration of economic activity in the Randstad area. In order to tackle the aspects identified in the scenarios, TNO will need knowledge with regard to the Technological Research Agenda on:

  • ways to increase flexibility in the use of buildings;
  • conceptual building methods;
  • re-use of building materials;
  • social-, construction-, traffic- and fire safety;
  • ways to become climate proof;
  • closure of material cycles (urban mining);
  • virtual building;
  • technologies for local energy generation and storage;
  • the effects of climate change;
  • intensive land use.

TNO Strategy Update Every Four Years

In order to formulate a strategy that is robust for future developments TNO used scenario planning in order to test its strategy against multiple possible future. TNO needs to update it’s strategy every four years to announce which societal issues it will address in their next strategy period and how it will apply the funds which are administered by the Dutch government.

 

Authors: Dr. J. van der Vlies      jaap.vandervlies@tno.nl

Drs. G.G.C. Mulder      guus.mulder@tno.nl

Sponsors: Dr. H.M.E. Miedema
Type: National foresight exercise, single issue
Organizer: Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO
Duration: Feb-Sept 2009 Budget: 35 kEuro Time Horizon: 2040 Date of Brief: March 2011  

 

Download EFP Brief No. 238_Dutch Research Agenda.

Sources and References

Heijden (1996), Scenarios – The art of strategic conversation, second edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2005, West Sussex.

EFP Brief No. 217: Sectoral Innovation Foresight: The Sectors

Friday, May 25th, 2012

This brief continues the coverage of the Sectoral Innovation Foresight of Brief no. 216 by taking a closer look at seven out of the nine sectors that were explored in the project as part of the Europe INNOVA initiative: automotive, food and drink, knowledge-intensive services, aerospace, and wholesale and retail. The foresight study aimed to identify potential policy issues and challenges of the future. The emphasis was put on developments that could possibly have a disruptive effect on the sectors under consideration, on the one hand, and on developments that are likely to be of cross-sectoral relevance to innovation, on the other.

Sectoral Futures

The scenarios developed offered a variety of different futures with quite divergent impacts on the competitive landscape, technological progress, environment and society. The scenarios aimed to guide policymakers in considering specific scenarios but were also an attempt to prepare them for more than one possible future. This also helped gauge the extent to which policies maintain flexibility (‘robust strategies’) or focus on one single scenario (‘focused strategies’).

Including the full results for each of the nine sectors would be an impossible task within the format of this foresight brief. Short summaries of the nine sectors will be presented instead. For some sectors short, summaries of the scenarios are included, for others only the key drivers are presented. The complete results are available in the nine sectoral foresight reports, which can be downloaded from the website (see references at the end).

Automotive

The automotive industry has been hard hit by the economic crisis. This has had a strong impact on its future strategic orientation and has triggered the transformation of the sector. Driving factors such as technical advances in developing power train technologies, new manufacturing strategies, market saturation, regulation, energy prices, and mobility behaviour have been considered to be significant.

From a future-oriented perspective, the following four drivers can be considered as particularly influential: (1) income (customers may have more or less relative income available in the future), (2) energy storage (we may see breakthrough innovations with respect to cost and capacity in relation to this crucial component of alternative power train technologies or only incremental innovations), (3) mobility behaviour (we can think of a differentiation of individual mobility or may see a reduction and substitution by public transport), and (4) regulation (ranging from radical attempts to incremental regulations). The last driver is pertinent in this respect as it is influenced by policymakers; hence, policy – more or less proactively – has a considerable influence on shaping the future of the automotive industry.

Construction

The construction sector is of considerable economic and strategic importance: the built environment affects almost every economic and leisure activity. The outputs of the construction sector affect our landscape, our environment, our living and working conditions – and will continue to do so for generations to come. It provides more employment than any other sector. And, more than any other sector, construction accounts for the use of raw materials and production of waste.

The following trends and drivers resulted as being particularly influential, yet uncertain, in the 10-15 years to come: (1) the conditions for the financing of investment (Will there be sufficient public and private financing available?); (2) sustainability (Will sustainability be market or regulation driven?); (3) the role of the public sector (Will public procurement be price-based or performance-based? Will the public sector act as a regulator or as a business operator?); (4) user-driven design (mass production vs. customisation, passive vs. interactive); and (5) labour (Will there be a shortage of people and skills or a surplus through immigration?).

Food and Drink

Currently, the picture of the food and drink industry as well as consumer choices seems to be mixed. Interests range from preferences for natural and minimally processed foods and drinks over specialised, fortified and high-tech nutrition to a diversity of convenience and fast foods. Many different factors, such as economic prosperity, ecological consciousness, environmental problems, food safety concerns, importance of health, technological progress, acceptance of new technology and economic prosperity, can have an influence on the direction of consumer and industry choices.

The scenarios derived from the following trends considered as generally fixed within a short- to mid-term time frame: the increase in global population, a decline of population in many EU countries due to lower birth rates, an increase in life expectancy in EU countries (aging society), and increases in scientific and technological knowledge and possibilities. In addition, the following parameters were considered to vary across the different scenarios and account for their differences: economic prosperity (on a world, country and individual scale), ecological consciousness, environmental problems (occurrences like droughts, floods, extreme weather that could negatively affect food production), food safety concerns (higher vs. lower concerns within society), importance of health (high interest in healthy living vs. rather low interest leading to problems like obesity) and last, technological progress as a function of socio-economic factors that lead to the real application of knowledge and possibilities.

Scenario 1: ‘Business as usual’. This is the reference scenario that depicts the current diversity and huge differences in the food and drink industry ranging from highly fortified and functional food over the trend of natural and organic products to fast food and food with no considerable nutritional value or even harmful ingredients. This scenario does not score high on overall innovativeness, although some sectors (e.g. functional food) will have great potential while others more or less continue their way of only small and incremental improvements in the future.

Scenario 2: ‘Going natural’. This scenario depicts the growing tendency towards less food processing and food products perceived as natural by consumers. Much innovation potential, such as the utilisation of genetically modified organisms (GMO) or nanoparticles in food production as well as other high-tech experiments, is found in areas generally not popular with the consumer. But also conventional ‘fast food’ considered unhealthy will be replaced more and more by other fast alternatives such as salads or fruit. Here, innovations mainly lie in finding ways to process food with healthier ingredients (e.g. natural food additives) or improved testing and process automation. A growing consumer concern over the environment and ethics (e.g. animal rights, fair trade etc.) are driving factors. This scenario is more likely under conditions of higher economic prosperity and greater concern over health issues. But it can also become more likely if the perception of ‘industrial food’ and industrial food producers becomes more negative.

Scenario 3: ‘Cheap and convenient’: This scenario reflects a situation where general prosperity as well as the interest in health, future and innovation declines. Contradictory information about nutritional health benefits as well as scientific fraud combined with higher budget consciousness leads to a growing disinterest of consumers in healthy nutrition. Budget (for some involuntarily), fastness, convenience and indulgence are major drivers. Resources for innovation are rather scarce, and companies are mostly interested in cost reduction.

Scenario 4: ‘High-tech nutrition’: In this scenario, technological progress is fast and developments from different disciplines, from biotechnology to material science, influence innovations in food and drink manufacturing. The consumers tend to increasingly accept novel technologies in the area of food and drink. Health improvement beyond healthy nutrition only stands in the centre of interest. It is considered to be achievable only through advanced technological modifications of food and drink products, which even result in medicinal food.

Scenario 5: ‘Emergency’: This scenario depicts a situation where some of the basic requirements of food security (availability and accessibility) are in jeopardy and the main goal for solutions and innovations lies in getting enough food. The ‘emergency’ scenario is certainly a kind of worst case scenario, but if sustainability were to be neglected, this could become a realistic outcome.

In the principal, technological possibilities in the area of food and drink production is high and even growing. The major challenge, however, lies in bringing these possibilities in line with consumer interests, solving current challenges and fostering the developments towards desirable futures while also stimulating culinary diversity and protecting culinary traditions.

Knowledge-intensive Services

The growth of knowledge-intensive services (KIS), including knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS), has been fuelled by the application of new technologies and changes in demand. The application of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is the most important technology driver of growth in KIBS. The application of ICTs creates new service opportunities but also provides new ways to provide services to clients and enhances the range of service firms. Demand-side drivers of KIBS growth include a higher degree of specialisation and division of labour in the economy, which leads to an increasing demand for external expertise and an increasing degree of outsourcing. In addition, internationalisation opens up new markets for service firms and facilitates international off-shoring.

Based on these drivers, the scenarios of the future development of KIBS are sketched along two dimensions: (1) the degree knowledge can be codified, which is key to automated service provision and scale advantages; (2) the stability and fluidity of the business environment, which allows or hampers outsourcing, internationalisation, entrepreneurship and the emergence of new players. Combinations of the two drivers result in four scenarios.

Aerospace

Future developments in the sector are particularly influenced by demand drivers and technology development. Demand drivers differ between aeronautics and space, with demand for aeronautics particularly shaped by expected growth in air travel, which in turn depends on economic growth and fuel prices. Space, on the other hand, is still a largely regulated sector dominated by public demand, making public demand and regulation key demand drivers. Future demand for space applications is largely based on addressing societal challenges, such as security issues, monitoring and managing transport as well as land, water and air resources. Generally, regulation is the largest source of uncertainty, primarily affecting future demand in aeronautics, for example through an emission trading system, but also in the space sector, with regulation touching on liability issues and space tourism.

Key uncertainty factors that have a high impact and account for differences between the scenarios are the availability and price of energy, the level of economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors were identified as posing the biggest future uncertainties for the sector.

Scenario 1: ‘Global green aerospace’: This scenario describes a peaceful, highly globalised world in 2040 that has successfully taken steps toward an energy transition assuring a secure energy supply at reasonable but increasing prices. Business people but also private individuals enjoy the freedom of being able to travel frequently and far away. Terrorism is not a major threat obstructing air travel. This leads to a flourishing aeronautics and space sector. New technologies and smart regulation lead to radical improvements in aircraft efficiency and emissions while the space sector allows monitoring and tackling many societal issues, such as climate change, environmental resources and mobility. Furthermore, free access to space and a global judicial system for space also allow the sector to flourish commercially.

Scenario 2: ‘Regional aerospace’: This scenario describes a world in 2040 with strong regional power hubs and limited ties between them. No global agreement on climate change has been reached, blocking a smooth transition to renewable alternatives. Access to fossil fuels hence remains important and shapes international relations. This combination of realpolitik and protectionist tendencies leads to slow economic growth and rising energy prices, with large regional differences based on access to oil/gas resources. Europe tries to lead the way but struggles with strong international competitors. While still able to travel globally, people choose to take holiday trips within Europe, largely for economic reasons. With increasing rivalry between global power hubs, access to space becomes more difficult in this climate.

Scenario 3: ‘Zero-sum games’: A rapid energy scarcity leads to highly fluctuating energy prices and interruptions in supply. Globalisation, thriving on cheap energy and transport, comes to a halt with severe economic adjustment processes. International holiday trips are reduced sharply with people adjusting their consumption patterns to a changed economic environment. Countries seek their interests in protectionist policies leading to a downward spiral and breakdown of multilateral institutions. Trade conflicts become the norm with resulting conflicts for access to natural resources. Security expenditure rises steeply at the expense of other policies, such as the environment. European integration is at stake. Overall, this is an unfavourable scenario with regions competing on a zero-sum basis leading to a deteriorating economic and social environment.

Textiles and Clothing

The European textiles and clothing (T/C) sector is undergoing two main simultaneous developments: the move from a labour-intensive, low-technology sector to a knowledge-intensive industry and the ongoing relocation of production out of Europe. While new technological opportunities for the T/C sector are emerging, the move to a knowledge-based sector is still at an early stage and major challenges need to be addressed.

A number of main drivers of change have been identified, including both technological drivers as well as demand-side drivers. Out of these technological drivers, intelligent clothing and smart materials are considered to be of outstanding importance. Findings in other technologies, including ICT and nanotechnology, are of growing importance and increasingly incorporated into textiles and clothing products as well. New production methods are another main technological driver, enabling the T/C sector to reduce the still high share of rather low-skilled manual labour, reduce the amount of energy and raw materials used, and increase the flexibility and quality of production processes. These new products and production methods are complemented by the more frequent use of e-commerce and other interactive technologies, offering a wide range of new business models. On the demand side, changes in consumer behaviour are driven by demographic changes, an increasing consumer awareness of factors affecting health and sustainability, and consumers’ attitudes towards counterfeit goods.

As these drivers are of varying importance to either the clothing or the technical textiles subsector, two sets of scenarios were developed, each illustrating three different developments of the two subsectors within the next five to ten years in Europe.

Wholesale and Retail Trade

The scenarios developed for the retail sector followed the rationale that retailers are the link between consumers, on the one side, and a wide range of actors, on the other, including wholesalers, suppliers, logistics services, providers of payment systems, advertising and marketing agencies, construction services, waste industry and recycling services. The following drivers and trends were considered the most important ones having a high impact: diversification of lifestyles, transportation costs, regulation and the structure of the sector (further market concentration versus a more diverse landscape of retail and wholesale services).

Scenario 1: ‘Big boxes everywhere & green big boxes everywhere’: In this scenario, discounters, supermarkets, hypermarkets and the retail chains are omnipresent. Production and distribution are efficient and the high competition between retail chains forces the retailers to lower costs. Because of the limited number of retail chains the diversity of goods is limited. On the outskirts of towns, large supermarkets target car owners. Retailers are entirely in the lead in terms of what they offer in their ‘big boxes’ and they define what producers have to produce. Retailers are focused on providing relatively low-cost options, achieving economies of scale and offering bundled products and services. The chains develop their own brands while some trusted brands have survived and prospered.

Scenario 2: ‘Local markets – connected through the web’: In this scenario, local markets are strongly based on products produced locally. Because of strategies to reduce environmental impact and ensure continued economic support of farmers and local communities everywhere, local communities in Europe are interested in direct trade with developing countries. There is more local community-based trade between communities in different parts of the world aimed at bypassing established retail supply chains. At the same time, these local markets are linked through web-based networks, establishing a worldwide community of local market actors with the goal of optimising logistics, sharing knowledge on crafts, green production and cooperation. Brands are less powerful, but labels that ensure high environmental and social standards are more influential.

Scenario 3: ‘The digital consumer’: In this scenario, the common internal market for e-commerce is fully realised and shopping takes place through e-commerce. Online shopping and physical shops are combined in various ways: Companies present their products online and organise settings where consuming and shopping is embedded in spectacular events. Tools for virtual experience have been developed, and consumers can learn about products from the experience of interacting with objects, people and the environment. Producers of niche products are expected to benefit from this scenario because they get easy access to consumers and can use the new opportunities provided by social networks.

Scenario 4: ‘The rise of lifestyle stores and malls’: Providing more customer choice to meet changing lifestyle preferences is the defining driver in the ‘lifestyle store’ scenario. In this scenario, people are mainly searching for a stimulating shopping experience. This could be provided by everything from an ‘on-site eco-farmers’ market to a blend of high-tech entertainment and shopping facilities. Lifestyle shopping malls can include one or more buildings forming a complex of shops representing merchandisers and service providers that represent the special lifestyle. The lifestyle-oriented agglomeration of producers and customers offers new market perspectives for specialised producers and services providers that would otherwise not have access to a sufficient quantity of partners and potential clients.

Scenario 5: ‘The supermarket as a public good’: This scenario may arise if values in regard to shopping radically change the retail and wholesale landscape. In this scenario, the main kind of distribution is a type of supermarket that is owned by society not by any individual or company. It pursues democratic values and gives more freedom of choice to the consumer – but also assigns them more responsibilities. Its operations are geared not primarily toward maximising profits but toward fulfilling ethical values and supporting the reshaping of society towards more sustainability and societal soundness. This kind of supermarket could serve the key collective function of providing a place of social integration at the local level. It could lead to more socially and ecologically conscious consumption and force all companies along the supply chain to ensure transparency.

Authors: Annelieke van der Giessen     annelieke.vandergiessen@tno.nl
Sponsors: European Commission, DG Enterprise & Industry
Type: Foresight study as part of Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch
Organiser: AIT, TNO with support from other partners in the Sectoral Innovation Watch consortium
Duration: 2008-2010 Budget: 336,000 € Time Horizon: 2020 (2040) Date of Brief: Mar 2012  

Download EFP Brief No. 217_Sectoral Innovation Foresight-Sectors

Sources and References

This foresight brief is based on the sectoral foresight reports from Sectoral Innovation Watch. All nine sectoral foresight reports can be downloaded here: http://www.europe-innova.eu/web/guest/publications/europe-innova-projects-publications

EFP Brief No. 216: Sectoral Innovation Foresight: The Challenges

Friday, May 25th, 2012

The Sectoral Innovation Foresight was part of the Sectoral Innovation Watch (SIW) project within the Europe INNOVA initiative. The foresight study aimed at exploring future developments in nine different sectors in order to identify potential policy issues and challenges of the future. The emphasis was put on developments that could possibly have a disruptive effect on the nine sectors under consideration, on the one hand, and on developments that are likely to be of cross-sectoral relevance to innovation, on the other.

Foresight on Sectoral Innovation Challenges

The Sectoral Innovation Foresight was part of the Sectoral Innovation Watch (SIW) project within the Europe INNOVA initiative. Europe INNOVA was launched by the European Commission’s Directorate General Enterprise and Industry as a laboratory for the development and testing of new tools and instruments in support of innovation with the goal of helping innovative enterprises innovate faster and better. It brought together public and private innovation support providers, such as innovation agencies, technology transfer offices, business incubators, financing intermediaries, cluster organisations and others. SIW aimed at monitoring and analysing trends and challenges. Detailed insights into sectoral innovation performance are crucial for the development of effective innovation policy at regional, national and European levels.

The foresight on sectoral innovation challenges aimed to integrate foresight exercises to understand the dynamics of sectoral systems of innovation. The concept of sectoral systems of innovation and production (Malerba 2002) seeks to provide a multidimensional, integrated and dynamic view of sectors. A sectoral system involves not only a specific knowledge base, technologies, inputs and demands that determine its development, both trends and trend-breaking developments are also drivers of sectoral change. The interactions of the sectoral actors (individuals, organisations, networks, institutions at various levels of aggregation) are shaped by institutions and by drivers of change. Undergoing change and transformation through the co-evolution of its various elements, a sectoral system is affected by science and technology drivers and demand-side drivers as well.

In recent years, a growing number of projects on sectoral innovation systems and on foresight concepts and activities have been initiated while a growing body of literature has been published. However, the two areas remained unconnected. Within the Sectoral Innovation Watch, the connection between these areas has now been made. The aim was to develop methods of sectoral innovation foresight for the development of a future-oriented innovation policy by identifying key drivers, emerging markets and requirements.

Foresight, in the way it was understood in SIW, is not about predicting the future, but follows the approach of ‘thinking, debating and shaping the future’ (European Commission 2002). It thus aims at sketching different reasonable variants of possible future developments (‘scenarios’), the associated challenges, underlying driving forces and options for dealing with them. In order to achieve this, the foresight approach must look beyond current trends (which are nevertheless an important input) and, in particular, into qualitative trend breaks that can give rise to qualitatively different future development paths in the sectors under study. It is when these qualitative trend breaks are superposed that major changes in both innovation and markets can happen.

This foresight exercise intended to look beyond time horizons that can be addressed by simply extrapolating current trends. In other words, to look sufficiently ahead for major changes to happen while at the same time staying sufficiently close to the present to remain relevant to decision-making during the next couple of years. While for some fast-changing sectors this may imply a three- to five-year time horizon (e.g. biotechnology), for others (e.g. construction) a ten-year time horizon may be more appropriate.

The nine sectors under study in the Sectoral Innovation Watch were:

  • biotechnology,
  • electrical and optical equipment,
  • automotive,
  • space and aeronautics,
  • construction,
  • wholesale and retail trade,
  • knowledge intensive services,
  • food and drink,
  • and textiles.

Enhancing Innovation and Competitiveness

The main objectives of the sectoral foresight exercise can be summarised as follows:

  • Explore and identify the main drivers of change in the nine sectors under study. These drivers will be both internal and external to the sectors, with several of them being of a crosscutting nature.
  • Identify and assess key future developments (i.e. main drivers, innovation trajectories, emerging markets, necessary co-developments, etc.). The emphasis is put on likely future innovation themes and emerging markets, more specifically also on the requirements and impacts that these innovation issues and emerging markets raise in terms of skills requirements, organisational, institutional and structural changes in the sectors concerned.
  • Develop scenario sketches for the sectors under study that capture the major uncertainties ahead of us.
  • Highlight key policy issues for the future, with a view to enhancing the innovation performance and competitiveness of firms operating in these sectors.

A Sectoral Perspective on Foresight

Foresight aims at sketching different reasonable variants of possible future developments, the associated challenges, underlying driving forces and options for dealing with them. In order to achieve this, the foresight approach looks at driving forces, captured for instance in trends and trend breaks. Recognizing the fact that future developments are by their very nature uncertain and open to value judgement, foresight covers activities to think the future, debate the future and shape the future. It is thus not a tool for predicting the future but a process that seeks to develop shared problem perceptions, make differences in expectations explicit and identify needs (and options) for action.

Thinking, debating and shaping the future of different but interlinked sectors is crucial today because innovation is a collectively shaped, distributed, and path-dependent process. Thinking, debating and shaping the future of sectoral systems has to embed the sector developments in contextual developments.

Innovation at the sectoral level depends to a large extent on the developments within the innovation system, but it is also driven by developments in its environment, like for instance changes in science and technology. To explore future patterns of innovation, it is thus necessary to investigate these contextual developments as well as corresponding developments within a sectoral innovation system.

For the purpose of the sectoral foresight exercise, the main building blocks of sectoral systems of innovation and production have been adjusted in order to integrate them with the foresight approach. This has led to a simple pattern of analysis, along the lines of which the sectoral foresights will be structured. The essence of this approach can be captured by the subsequent building blocks (see Figure 1, next page):

  • Drivers, i.e. emerging trends and trend breaks in S&T developments, of expected demand – both internal and external to the sectors under study – that are likely to exert a major influence on emerging innovation themes. Broader crosscutting developments/trends (e.g. the extent to which globalisation affects a sector) are also taken into account.
  • Innovation themes, which are seen as the results of the interplay of S&T developments and changes in expected demand.
  • Emerging markets, which can achieve significance if an innovation theme evolves successfully, i.e. if potential barriers can be overcome and enablers be strengthened.
  • Co-developments in and around a sectoral innovation system; they can serve as enablers of and barriers to innovation. They can even be essential in order to allow markets to emerge. Such co-developments reflect the aforementioned building blocks of sectoral innovation systems.

For the purposes of this exercise, we will refer specifically to

  • organisational changes at the firm level,
  • firm strategies for dealing with emerging drivers
  • skills requirements needed, for instance, to absorb S&T developments,
  • structural changes, i.e. changing configurations of actors in a sector,
  • institutional change, i.e. changes in the ‘rules of the game’ determining the interactions between the actors.

In addition to these four building blocks, the co-evolutionary dynamics of innovation and change in a sector are captured by way of scenarios. Scenarios are to be understood as plausible and at the same time challenging combinations of these building blocks in a future-oriented perspective. Due to the uncertainties associated with contextual developments as well as with all other elements of the innovation system analysis, it is essential to think in terms of several, qualitatively different scenarios of the future, especially if a time horizon is chosen that goes beyond the scope of extrapolating current trends and aims at qualitative changes. In particular, the interplay of different drivers and their mutual reinforcement can give rise to major, even disruptive changes in sectoral innovation systems, with major implications for firm strategies as well as public policy.

The SIW foresight exercise was implemented in four main steps and the results of these steps were integrated in nine sectoral foresight reports:

State of the Art Analysis

For each sector a review of secondary sources on foresight was carried out. This review covered, in particular, the situational analysis, the analysis of drivers of change, as well as a first view on innovation themes. The nine interim sector papers served as input to the workshop on ‘Sectoral innovation foresight: key drivers, innovation themes & emerging markets’ that took place on 23-24 June 2009 in Brussels.

First Foresight Workshop

This first workshop aimed at validating and deepening the findings on drivers and innovation themes but also at exploring first ideas about future sector-level scenarios and associated co-developments. Interim findings were presented and discussed in working groups that dealt specifically with each individual sector as well as with the main crosscutting issues. The discussions with and feedback from the sector experts across Europe helped validate the interim results on key drivers, innovation themes, related emerging markets and associated requirements, and thus contributed to identifying the crucial issues for the future. The first workshop was attended by 60+ key players from the nine sectors, including industry representatives, scientists, foresight experts and policy advisors.

Deepening Findings and Scenario Development

On the basis of the results of the first workshop, the preliminary findings on emerging developments in the sectors were deepened. In particular, this phase evaluated the inputs to the scenario sketches from the first workshop and provided further input for the development of scenarios. Interviews were used to refine the understanding of the role of co-developments for the emergence of markets related to the innovation themes identified.

Second Foresight Workshop

Scenarios played a central role at the second foresight workshop in December 2009. Moreover, cross-sectoral issues were addressed, like, for instance, common drivers of change across sectors or inter-linkages between them. The second workshop also aimed at extracting those issues that – from a forward-looking perspective – are likely to require policy attention. The second workshop was attended by 60+ key players from the nine sectors, including industry representatives, researchers, foresight experts and policy advisors.

Futures Robust Policy Analysis

The finding of commonalities across all sectors reveals what generic factors would be part of the basic pool of drivers to consider when aiming to for policy flexibility (‘robust policy strategies’) in the medium term. This will not reduce uncertainty but can improve preparedness against unforeseen developments while contributing to better policies focused on one single scenario (‘focused strategies’).

In general, there are four main axes that, according to the foresight exercises done, are likely to determine and organise to a large extent the future development of the sectors of interest of the Sectoral Innovation Watch. These are, in no order or priority, general macroeconomic conditions, government policy and intervention, science and technology advances, and the human factor understood as susceptibility of population and democratic systems to broad societal challenges. In addition to these four main axes, other important key organisers of future sectoral developments include energy consumption and pricing and global industrial dynamics.

General Macroeconomic Conditions

The levels of income, aggregated demand and availability of capital are strongly related to macroeconomic growth. Here income must be understood as a factor that affects supply and demand factors. On the supply side, general macroeconomic conditions affect the cost and availability of financing, not only of R&D and innovation but also general investments in infrastructures and production systems. In turn, poor macroeconomic conditions affect employment and overall household income, thus influencing demand for goods and services across an economy. Despite the importance of innovation in the increase in total factor productivity and its effects on growth, the sectors under study are part of a larger industrial ecosystem where typical macroeconomic parameters affected by events beyond the industrial system produce chain reactions across sectors (i.e., the recent financial crisis). Close monitoring of interest rates, trade balances, and overall government expenditure and deficits at the national level must be considered in the design of any sectoral policy.

Government Intervention

Government intervention in the form of regulation is one of the largest sources of uncertainty across all sectors. Its development and stringency along the business cycle is a major moderator of science and technology applications (innovation). Entire sectors (e.g. space) depend to a large extent on public procurement. The empirical analysis of the SIW on the role of regulation to moderate innovation confirms the important role of regulation on innovation performance. Empirical evidence indicates a positive relationship between regulation and innovation.

Science and Technology Developments

The foresight exercise conducted considered a large array of new technologies and innovation efforts likely to influence the direction and rate of growth in all sectors. Any sectoral policy must have a clear consideration of unexploited opportunities and technologies and innovation. An additional factor in this driver is the increasing pace of technological convergence that key enabling technologies bring. The set of foresight reports in the SIW have provided a broad account of current and near future innovations that will transform the sectors of interest to a certain extent.

Human Factor

‘Human factor’ refers to the susceptibility of citizens to very diverse issues that could be technology related or not. Important issues could be sustainability effects of consumption, travel behaviour, lifestyles, value given to health, safety, security, or risk technology perception, etc. Any demand-side policy targeting final or intermediate consumers or users of goods and services must take into account the susceptibility of the target population to a specific issue associated with the technology or innovation of interest.

Global Industrial Dynamics

Global industrial dynamics includes a number of issues that determine the evolution of sectors. These include market structures, market saturation, flexibilisation of supply and demand, availability of skilled labour and the return of the issue of global value chain dominance. In itself, industrial dynamics is a major determinant of the evolution of sectors. Any policy initiative not incorporating clear conceptions of the likely evolution of industrial dynamics in the medium term will have little chance of success.

The five factors described above form part of any robust policy that would ensure sufficient flexibility to face uncertainty and potentially haphazard sectoral developments.

Authors: Annelieke van der Giessen     annelieke.vandergiessen@tno.nl
Sponsors: European Commission, DG Enterprise & Industry
Type: Foresight study as part of Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch
Organizer: AIT, TNO with support from other partners in the Sectoral Innovation Watch consortium
Duration: 2008-2010 Budget: € 336,000 Time Horizon: 2020 (2040) Date of Brief: Mar 2012  

 

Download EFP Brief No. 216_Sectoral Innovation Foresight Overview

Sources and References

This foresight brief is based on several sectoral foresight deliverables from Sectoral Innovation Watch. The two main sources concern:

Montalvo C. and A. van der Giessen (2011) Sectoral Innovation Watch – Synthesis Report, Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch, for DG Enterprise and Industry, European Commission, December 2011.

Weber, M., P. Schaper-Rinkel and M. Butter (2009) Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Introduction to the Interim Report, Task 2, Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch, for DG Enterprise and Industry, European Commission, July 2009

EFP Brief No. 202: Future of Super Intelligent Transport Systems

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

The purpose of the exercise is to offer business people, policy makers and politicians lines of approach to determine strategy, policymaking as well as initiatives for change by presenting future visions and an accompanying agenda for the future with respect to transportation of people and goods in the Netherlands of 2040.

Integrating Socio-Economic Trends & Emerging Technologies into Mobility

Reinventing mobility is more than just “reinventing the car”. It involves the development of a new mobility paradigm and a full-scale alteration of the transport system. Mobility denotes the transportation of objects over a certain distance, in a certain environment, the movement of people, their patterns of life, work and recreation. The increasing speed at which time and place of social and commercial life takes place creates demand for new kinds, modes and scales of mobility. What will mobility look like 30 years from now?

Mechatronics, nano-electronics, interconnectivity and intelligent software will increasingly play a role in people’s daily lives. These technologies affect all societal domains and will have a great impact across all sectors of society. These developments have an enormous effect on the attitude and behaviour of human beings; interaction between technology and its users becomes an ever more crucial factor in finding solutions for problems in any domain, including mobility. Hence, implementing new technological solutions requires an integral approach from different disciplines.

Mobility Outlook for 2040

The main question of this foresight study is: why and how will the citizens of the Netherlands transport themselves and their goods 30 years from now super intelligently?

In order to answer this question, a set of four possible future visions will be defined (not necessarily conceivably probable or preferable). Each of the future visions will be accompanied by an agenda for the future. It will outline strategic questions regarding a preferred transition model. A complete system change seems inevitable and technologically attainable options will be given as well as suggestions for ‘no regret’ activities, input for future feasibility studies, and questions for further scientific research and experiments.

The target audience of this foresight study are (Dutch) business people, policy makers and politicians.

Super Intelligent: Human-Machine Interaction and Beyond

In this study, transport is considered to be a function within a society. Transport is a derived activity required to fulfil other (personal) needs like work, education, doing groceries etc. In our opinion, an integral transport system includes both the transport of people and goods. Transport can be physical but also virtual or a combination of both.

The term ‘super intelligent’ is to be interpreted not solely from a technological perspective, but also from the perspective of interaction between a machine or intelligent network, on the one side, and a human being, on the other. The challenge is to think beyond current possibilities and to consider, among others, transport systems that can regulate, manage and perform autonomously.

Dutch society, with its own set of demographics, economics, spatial planning and government, is the focus area of this study. Mobility will be addressed within and between cities as well as in rural areas, including interconnectivity between these places.

Technology as well as human behaviour and society are important aspects in this study.

Broad Assessment of Transportation Needs

The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT) organises this study, which is managed by a Project Manager with support of the STT office, under supervision of a Steering Committee. The Steering Committee monitors the progress as well as the cross-sector dependency, consistency, structure and overall logic of the project. STT foresights are based on a participatory approach with members from many different disciplines.

A broad Market Vision Group with Dutch CEOs provides its vision on challenges, acceptance and risks in bilateral talks. A Technology Vision Group analyses future technological innovations from a sector or functional domains and works towards an integrated view. A Behaviour Vision Group analyses changes in, for example, societal and behavioural attitudes and acceptance.

The results of desk research, individual interviews and the outcomes of the interactive and creative meetings of the different vision groups have resulted in four scenarios. To stimulate ideas across domains, each of the scenarios will be deliberated on by a mix of members of the Technology and Behaviour Vision Groups and some external organisations. For each scenario, we will determine the transportation needs and translate them into possible transport systems. The final future visions will be validated in an expert meeting with the members of the different vision groups and external experts.

The broad and participative setup of STT studies instigates commitment for follow-up actions already during the course of a study, not least because a cross-disciplinary and cross-company network is established.

Participants

Over 80 people from industry, knowledge institutes and government agencies are involved in this participative study. Among the participants are representatives of the following organisations:

Industry: Arcadis, Cap Gemini, Cisco, ECT, Essent, IBM, INROADS, NXP, Schiphol, Segway, Siemens, Spijkstaal, TomTom.

Knowledge institutes: Delft University of Technology, Eindhoven University of Technology, Next Generation Infrastructures, Rotterdam University (Hogeschool Rotterdam), Tilburg University, TNO, University of Groningen, University of Twente, VU University Amsterdam.

NGOs: ANWB, Connekt, KIVI NIRIA, Agrologistics Platform (Platform Agrologistiek).

Government agencies: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, NL Agency.

Five Major Trends Give Input for Scenarios

This study is still in progress. Therefore the findings mentioned below are provisional.

As transport is considered a function within a society, future developments within the society are the starting point for exploring future transportation needs – notwithstanding the fact that we are aware that future technological developments will also have an impact.

Through desk research, interviews and group meetings, we have chosen several relevant (worldwide) socio-economic trends. Out of these, we have identified the following five trends as most relevant for future transportation needs for diverse future visions:

  • Urbanisation: the degree and manner of urbanisation affect the transport patterns of people and goods.
  • Demographic developments: population growth, increase in number of elderly citizens, relative decrease in number of young people –different age cohorts spend their time differently and hence have different transportation patterns.
  • Individualisation: what effect will the growing dominance of each person’s needs on (public) transport be?
  • Informatisation: informatisation changes the nature of services and the distances goods have to travel.
  • Globalisation: the distance to be covered has an impact on the transportation mode used.

These trends and their possible counterparts are input for the framework in which the four scenarios will be developed.

Framework: A Person’s Needs

Following the trends above and considering other frameworks, such as that of CPB (2010) (see references), we have defined our own framework in which a human being and his/her needs to live, work and recreate are at the core. A person’s needs, focus and preferences are the underlying thought behind the proposed framework. The two trends of individualisation and globalisation (and their possible counterparts) are set against each other to define the four future scenarios. Other relevant trends (and possible trend breaks) are used to complete the description of the four scenarios.

The degree of individualisation is believed to indicate a person’s preference for individual or collective transport of people. As for the transport of goods, it indicates the desire for more ‘tailor-made’ or more mass-produced goods and therefore the possibilities (and restrictions) in production, transportation and delivery of goods and services.

  • The degree of globalisation (geographical orientation) determines the distance that people, goods and services have to travel. With these two dimensions, participants are invited to consider two important aspects of transport: the number of items to be transported and the distance to be covered. By differentiating those two aspects, we believe the four future visions will be sufficiently distinct.

As stated before, this framework is not based on an existing model and therefore does not have a direct connection to other foresight studies or future scenario sets known to the participants. Therefore, the descriptions of the four future scenarios have to be clearly depicted and sufficiently insightful.

Scenario Set and Future Visions

The chosen framework results in the following four scenarios. The context has been sketched for each:

Individual – International: Individual Prosperity

Individuals seek after prosperity and luxury and work in casual relations for different clients. They deliver their contribution to global, virtual, shifting teams from their homes. They are not interested in the origin of products and services they consume as long as they are delivered right in time to their door and fully adjusted to their wishes.

Collective – International: Global Environmental Awareness

People live in cities. Tasks are highly divided; hence people are highly specialised in their profession. Services are the dominant work field. New technologies are maturing. Products and services are produced at the most suitable location. Government agencies worldwide have taken the lead for a healthy environment and manage the responsible use of natural resources. Companies make sure the economy runs smoothly.

Collective – Local: Strong Region

People have a regional network of acquaintances and social activities. Due to strict environmental policies, economic growth is no longer the predominant priority. Intensive reuse of natural resources and goods has restricted trade between regions. Society has shifted its focus from economic ownership to right of use. A region hosts most of the goods and facilities needed, so people see no reason to leave the area, not even for a holiday.

  • Individual – Local: Self-sufficient Unit

A worldwide crisis has triggered a dramatic shift in society. It has brought about the development of highly self-sufficient small communities, which are organised according to the principle “cradle 2 cradle”. Thanks to technological developments, habitats offer sufficient means of subsistence, and large global production flows belong to the past. Sharing knowledge globally is key to accomplishing this. Autarkic communities take up a lot of space relatively. This has resulted in ruralisation and a redevelopment of urban areas.

These scenario descriptions will be discussed by a mixed team of members from the Technological and Behavioural Vision Groups. They set the context for defining the transportation needs in each scenario and for possible (new and existing) modes of transportation to fulfil those needs. Future technological possibilities will be linked to (expected) societal issues as well as to solutions of problems. The consequences for society and its institutions, the profit sector, public sector and labour market will be analysed. Behavioural change is an ever-present aspect in all of these.

The Impact of Emerging Technologies

The participants have identified a wide range of (expected) possible technological developments. The ones believed to be most relevant to future transportation needs and possible modes of transportation are:

  • Nanotechnology
  • Biotechnology (nature as a source of inspiration, biological machines)
  • Sensor technology
  • Cognitive sciences
  • Information technology (embedded systems, network technology, artificial intelligence, ambient intelligence, self-organising systems)
  • Converging technologies
  • Energy generation, storage and distribution
  • Robotics

And to a lesser extent

  • Genetic engineering

These expected technological developments will be used to translate future transportation needs into proposed transportation systems in each of the four scenarios.

Recurring and Remarkable Ideas: How Will a ‘Cocoon Life’ Affect Future Transport Options?

During the different meetings, some ideas have recurred. Others stood out based on their ‘outside the box’ character. A selection of these ideas is listed below.

Recurring societal ideas

  • Self-organisation and self-help
  • Self-determination (deliberate individual choices)
  • Collectively individual (individuals enjoy their own choices together with others who made the same choice)
  • Local/near-home production
  • Need for social interaction remains

Recurring mobility ideas

  • Underground transport (of goods and people)
  • What you need comes to you, no need of collecting it
  • Most favourable is to use what is already there
  • Integration of activities and mobility
  • Multi-modal transportation
  • Non-travelling alternatives flourish

Remarkable ideas

  • A cocoon to live in: you carry your home along with you and connect it to your location of work or recreation
  • Relaxed and liveable city: above the ground back to nature; under the ground high-quality infrastructure
  • Disposable transport
  • Use of organic materials for transport (vehicles)

These ideas will be used to inspire and further develop the four future visions.

Assessment of Policy Options

The key issues for policy-making, the solutions required to tackle challenges and benefit from opportunities, the priorities and focus for action as well as critical factors and key players in shaping the future will be determined during the final part of this study.

STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends

The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT) was established in 1968 by the Royal Institute of Engineers (KIVI NIRIA). STT explores new trends and develops inspiring foresights on technology and society. For this purpose, STT provides a free space for enthusiastic stakeholders to meet and construct creative views on the future. STT aims to give publicity to its findings as a contribution to a more integrated picture of the future of society in the Netherlands and elsewhere. The results serve as starting points for new initiatives, such as national (applied) research programmes or public-private cooperation.

STT addresses industry, government, science and all other interested parties.

STT publications are highly valued in both the private and public sector.

Authors: Marie-Pauline van Voorst tot Voorst   vanvoorst@stt.nl
Sponsors: STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends and its beneficiaries (corporate and knowledge institutes and government)
Type: Single issue, multidisciplinary
Organizer: STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends – Marie-Pauline van Voorst tot Voorst
Duration: 08/2010–09/2012 Budget: N/A Time Horizon: 2040 Date of Brief: Sept. 2011  

 

EFP Brief No. 202_Future of Superintelligent Transport Systems

Sources and References

CPB – Centraal Planbureau (2010), “The Netherlands of 2040”, available online at http://www.nl2040.nl/

STT organisation: www.stt.nl

Super Intelligent Transport Systems project page: www.stt.nl/transport

EFP Brief No. 108: The Future of the Dutch Natural and Built Environment

Friday, May 20th, 2011

The purpose of this scenario exercise is to support the Dutch national government in the development of policies on spatial planning, natural resources, and quality of the physical environment. By exploring how various aspects of the living environment and land use in the Netherlands may develop in the long run (2040), the study aims to show when and where current policy objectives may come under pressure and which new issues may emerge.

EFMN Brief No. 108 – Dutch Environment