The brief describes the methodology and conclusions of a foresight project called Agrimonde. Between 2006 and 2008, this project gathered a panel of French experts who built two contrasting scenarios of the world’s food and agricultural systems by 2050: Agrimonde GO, a business-as-usual scenario used as a reference point, and Agrimonde 1, a rupture scenario exploring a world that has been able to implement sustainable food production and consumption.
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Energy in agriculture is all too often seen as a purely cyclical issue whereas it brings more complex challenges in terms of economic stability for agricultural holdings, impacts on the environment and climate, on food supply chains and spatial planning. The present brief describes the main results of a prospective study led by the Centre for Studies and Strategic Foresight (at the French Ministry of Agriculture). A group of experts used the scenario method to imagine possible futures of the agriculture-energy system in 2030 and help identify priorities and options for public action.
This exercise was part of an EU FP7 Blue Skies Project aimed at piloting, developing and testing in real situations a foresight methodology designed to bring together key stakeholders for the purpose of exploring longer term challenges and building a shared vision that could guide the development of the relevant European research agenda. This approach was applied to the theme of “Breakthrough technologies for the security of supply of critical minerals and metals in the EU economy”.
The national foresight study “France 2025”, completed in March 2009, aimed at identifying economic, social, technological and environmental trends up to 2025 – on global scale as well as at the national level. At the same time, the exercise sought to outline different future development scenarios for the country against the background of these trends. Based on those scenarios, policy options and strategies were worked out geared toward strengthening French competitiveness while ensuring social cohesion in the country.
Within the EFONET Coordination Action, an analysis of the state of the art of energy foresight activities in the EU countries has been carried out in order to assess the transferability of the “good practices” learnt from the national foresight experiences towards energy foresight on the European level.
EFP Brief No. 139: Future Prospects of Care Facilities and Services for the Dependent Elderly in FranceSaturday, May 21st, 2011
Following the submission of an initial report in July 2005 on the evolution of illness related to old age and estimations of the number of accommodations available for the dependent elderly, the French minister in charge of elderly affairs asked the Strategic Analysis Centre to further consider how to provide and finance the care of dependent persons until 2025. Relying on a single quantitative scenario, the report proposes a global strategy turning on several key principles: a preference for in-home care and supplying treatment in a welcoming environment, reliance on technological and social innovation, the qualitative improvement of establishments housing the most dependent persons and the use of new regulatory tools in order to promote performance and a better territorial distribution.
This foresight initiative intends to initiate the elaboration of a long-term strategic plan for French Transport policy. The exercise uses a French methodological approach to carry out retrospective analysis of historical trends and build quantitative scenarios. It provides general insights on transportation flows and opens public debate on public policies designed to prepare for the “post-oil” era and cre-ate impulses for a serious effort to reduce greenhouse emissions.
“Key technologies 2010” is the third edition of a process, launched in 1995 by the Ministry of Industry. However, it differs from the previous exercises with regard to its objectives, target and methodology (design, dissemination and monitoring). “Key Technologies 2010” results in a characterisation and prioritisation of a list of key technologies according to the long-term appreciation of their im-pact on the development of activities identified as being structuring for France. The methodology developed within this exercise in-cludes information collection and analysis, interviews with stakeholders from ministries and research organisations, the implementa-tion of working groups and a strong collaboration with regional actors.